M15 Trois-Rivières: Louis Wessels vs Aadarsh Tripathi
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Aadarsh Tripathi (60%) · Aadarsh Tripathi at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Aadarsh Tripathi
5
Aadarsh Tripathi 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$40.21
81.6¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAadarsh Tripathi at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Aadarsh Tripathiavg 88¢ | $516.12 | $586.21 | +$70.09 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Louis Wesselsavg 82¢ | $370.42 | $336.54 | -$33.88 | 47% 1163-1315 (2478) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Louis Wesselsavg 12¢ | $31.08 | $63.44 | +$32.36 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
| └ Aadarsh Tripathi leg | Aadarsh Tripathiavg 18¢ | $7.08 | $33.44 | +$26.36 | |
| └ Louis Wessels leg | Louis Wesselsavg 12¢ | $24 | $30 | +$6 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Aadarsh Tripathiavg 18.8¢ | $13.36 | $16.71 | +$3.35 | 50% 20743-20989 (41732) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Louis Wesselsavg 75.9¢ | $3.29 | $3.23 | -$0.06 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 poshposh<$100 | Aadarsh Tripathiavg 17¢ | $1.43 | $2.14 | +$0.71 | 57% 12279-9333 (21612) |
Invested
$516.12
Value
$586.21
PnL
+$70.09
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$370.42
Value
$336.54
PnL
-$33.88
Record
47%
1163-1315 (2478)
Invested
$31.08
Value
$63.44
PnL
+$32.36
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.36
Value
$16.71
PnL
+$3.35
Record
50%
20743-20989 (41732)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$2.14
PnL
+$0.71
Record
57%
12279-9333 (21612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.