Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Louis Wessels, while the market favors Theodore Dean (85%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Montreal: Louis Wessels vs Theodore Dean

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Louis Wessels (83%) · Louis Wessels at 15¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Louis Wessels15¢Theodore Dean85¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Louis Wessels

Consensus Traders

Louis Wessels 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$337.88

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 15¢

-70% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLouis Wessels at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louis Wessels

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Theodore Dean 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Louis Wessels15%

Theodore Dean85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louis Wessels5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,734

Combined PnL-$338.65

Theodore Dean1 trader

Total Value$10.77

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.77

Louis Wessels — 83%Theodore Dean — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Louis Wessels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouis Wessels 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouis Wessels 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Louis Wessels 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Theodore Deanavg 50¢	$1.1K	$955.5	-$94.5	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Louis Wessels leg	Louis Wesselsavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5
└ Theodore Dean leg	Theodore Deanavg 50¢	$525	$441	-$84
RN1CTR	Louis Wesselsavg 51.8¢	$992.45	$943.18	-$49.27	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Louis Wesselsavg 51.7¢	$307.9	$115	-$192.9	48% 335-369 (704)
└ Theodore Dean leg	Theodore Deanavg 80.2¢	$63.94	$72.52	+$8.58
└ Louis Wessels leg	Louis Wesselsavg 51.7¢	$243.96	$42.48	-$201.48
FL FlaznorpCTR	Louis Wesselsavg 51.9¢	$247.37	$58.28	-$189.09	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Louis Wesselsavg 41.6¢	$78.45	$43.4	-$35.06	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
38 38791873984189CTR	Louis Wesselsavg 49.6¢	$156.72	$15.6	-$67.23	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Theodore Deanavg 39¢	$10	$10.77	+$0.77	46% 97-112 (209)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Louis Wesselsavg 19¢	$6.89	$8.88	+$1.99	37% 534-922 (1456)

NotJumpARB<$100

Theodore Dean

Invested

$1,050

Value

$955.5

PnL

-$94.5

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Louis Wessels$52550¢-$10.5

Theodore Dean$52550¢-$84

RN1CTR

Louis Wessels

Invested

$992.45

Value

$943.18

PnL

-$49.27

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Louis Wessels

Invested

$307.9

Value

$115

PnL

-$192.9

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

Both legs:

Theodore Dean$63.9480.2¢+$8.58

Louis Wessels$243.9651.7¢-$201.48

FlaznorpCTR

Louis Wessels

Invested

$247.37

Value

$58.28

PnL

-$189.09

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Louis Wessels

Invested

$78.45

Value

$43.4

PnL

-$35.06

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

38791873984189CTR

Louis Wessels

Invested

$156.72

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$67.23

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

glennyorkshire<$100

Theodore Dean

Invested

$10

Value

$10.77

PnL

+$0.77

Record

46%

97-112 (209)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Louis Wessels

Invested

$6.89

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$1.99

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

Research grade

AvoidLouis Wessels at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Louis Wessels

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Theodore Dean 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Louis Wessels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouis Wessels 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouis Wessels 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Louis Wessels 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louis Wessels wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.