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Arthur WeberArthur WeberMickael KaoukMickael KaoukMickael KaoukMickael Kaouk
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Mickael Kaouk — but Arthur Weber won instead.
M15 Heraklion: Arthur Weber vs Mickael Kaouk
Resolved Arthur Weber. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Mickael Kaouk. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Mickael Kaouk 60%
Total Value
$16
Combined PnL
-$13.26
Smart Money Signal
Mickael Kaouk
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Arthur Weber100%
Mickael Kaouk0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Arthur Weber2 traders
Total Value$16
Total Shares16
Combined PnL+$5.74
Mickael Kaouk4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares171
Combined PnL-$19
Arthur Weber — 33%Mickael Kaouk — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Arthur Weberavg 61¢ | $6.71 | $11 | +$4.29 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100 | Arthur Weberavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $5 | +$1.45 | 47% 327-367 (694) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Mickael Kaoukavg 7¢ | $11.29 | — | -$11.29 | 51% 2054-1966 (4020) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Mickael Kaoukavg 39¢ | $10 | — | -$6.41 | 47% 95-107 (202) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Mickael Kaoukavg 19¢ | $0.95 | — | -$0.95 | 33% 197-393 (590) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Mickael Kaoukavg 7¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 41% 247-360 (607) |
FL
Flaznorp<$100Invested
$6.71
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.29
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
CA
CandleHammerDrums<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
47%
327-367 (694)
KE
keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100Invested
$11.29
Value
—
PnL
-$11.29
Record
51%
2054-1966 (4020)
GL
glennyorkshireCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$6.41
Record
47%
95-107 (202)
US
User7429CTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
—
PnL
-$0.95
Record
33%
197-393 (590)
0X
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
41%
247-360 (607)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xef316556...1d4061
Slug
itf-weber1-kaouk1-2026-11-12