W50 Yokohama: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamura

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kyoka Okamura (83%) · Kyoka Okamura at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Heather Watson14¢Kyoka Okamura86¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kyoka Okamura

Consensus Traders

Kyoka Okamura 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$96.41

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 85.5¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heather Watson14%

Kyoka Okamura86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kyoka Okamura5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,083

Combined PnL-$80.66

Heather Watson1 trader

Total Value$65.88

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$15.76

Kyoka Okamura — 83%Heather Watson — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Kyoka Okamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeather Watson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kyoka Okamura 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Kyoka Okamuraavg 67.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$37.71	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	51% 994-962 (1956)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 50¢	$525	$567	+$42
└ Heather Watson leg	Heather Watsonavg 50¢	$525	$483	-$42
CA CandleHammerDrums	Kyoka Okamuraavg 59¢	$377.6	$345.6	-$32	49% 573-601 (1174)
RN1ARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 58¢	$350.47	$330.96	-$19.51	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 58¢	$249.91	$232.54	-$17.37
└ Heather Watson leg	Heather Watsonavg 47¢	$100.56	$98.42	-$2.14
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 61.8¢	$261.38	$119.89	+$1.71	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 61.8¢	$66.75	$89.1	+$6.49
└ Heather Watson leg	Heather Watsonavg 26.2¢	$46.06	$30.79	-$4.78
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 62.6¢	$83.5	$72.03	-$11.46	45% 433-525 (958)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Heather Watsonavg 57¢	$81.64	$65.88	-$15.76	46% 568-669 (1237)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 79¢	$5.53	$5.5	-$0.04	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.7	+$0.55	47% 196-225 (421)

Flaznorp

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$1,146.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.71

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

NotJumpARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$52550¢+$42

Heather Watson$52550¢-$42

CandleHammerDrums

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$377.6

Value

$345.6

PnL

-$32

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

RN1ARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$350.47

Value

$330.96

PnL

-$19.51

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$249.9158¢-$17.37

Heather Watson$100.5647¢-$2.14

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$261.38

Value

$119.89

PnL

+$1.71

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$66.7561.8¢+$6.49

Heather Watson$46.0626.2¢-$4.78

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$83.5

Value

$72.03

PnL

-$11.46

Record

45%

433-525 (958)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Heather Watson

Invested

$81.64

Value

$65.88

PnL

-$15.76

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

ferdinand2<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$5.53

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

glennyorkshire<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.55

Record

47%

196-225 (421)

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Kyoka Okamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeather Watson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kyoka Okamura 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kyoka Okamura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.