M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Giuseppe La Vela vs Andrej Martin
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Andrej Martin (100%) · Andrej Martin at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Andrej Martin
7
Andrej Martin 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$363.63
79.8¢ → 88¢
+10% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralAndrej Martin at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Andrej Martinavg 80.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$268.55 | 56% 4466-3442 (7908) |
 alpheclabs2ARB<$100 | Andrej Martinavg 79¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12 | 45% 186-224 (410) |
| └ Andrej Martin leg | Andrej Martinavg 79¢ | $948 | $816 | -$132 | |
| └ Giuseppe La Vela leg | Giuseppe La Velaavg 20¢ | $240 | $384 | +$144 | |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Andrej Martinavg 79.5¢ | $715.5 | $612 | -$103.5 | 47% 325-361 (686) |
FL Flaznorp | Andrej Martinavg 79.2¢ | $339.6 | $383.96 | +$44.36 | 51% 2503-2397 (4900) |
38 38791873984189 | Andrej Martinavg 79.5¢ | $213.96 | $182.92 | -$31.04 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
 poshposh | Andrej Martinavg 78¢ | $117 | $102 | -$15 | 47% 507-571 (1078) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Andrej Martinavg 78.8¢ | $86.7 | $96.8 | +$10.1 | 41% 243-356 (599) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Andrej Martinavg 92.5¢ | $17.67 | $17.67 | +$0 | 42% 332-452 (784) |
RN1Invested
$1,776.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$268.55
Record
56%
4466-3442 (7908)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100Invested
$1,188
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12
Record
45%
186-224 (410)
Both legs:
Invested
$715.5
Value
$612
PnL
-$103.5
Record
47%
325-361 (686)
Invested
$339.6
Value
$383.96
PnL
+$44.36
Record
51%
2503-2397 (4900)
Invested
$213.96
Value
$182.92
PnL
-$31.04
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
poshposhInvested
$117
Value
$102
PnL
-$15
Record
47%
507-571 (1078)
Invested
$86.7
Value
$96.8
PnL
+$10.1
Record
41%
243-356 (599)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$17.67
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
332-452 (784)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Andrej Martin — $1.5K
alpheclabs2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CandleHammerDrums
Andrej Martin — $612
Flaznorp
Andrej Martin — $383.96
38791873984189
Andrej Martin — $182.92
poshposh
Andrej Martin — $102
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Andrej Martin — $96.8
smithagent
Andrej Martin — $17.67