Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Kai Thompson — but Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes won instead.

M15 Zamora: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Kai Thompson

Resolved Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Kai Thompson. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Kai Thompson 63%

Total Value

$109.68

Combined PnL

$25.55

Kai Thompson

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes100%

Kai Thompson0%

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes3 traders

Total Value$109.68

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$28.44

Kai Thompson5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$2.89

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes — 38%Kai Thompson — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdesavg 50¢	$22.84	$45.68	+$22.84	45% 35-43 (78)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdesavg 92¢	$36.8	$40	+$3.2	51% 166-162 (328)
PA Pan9X<$100	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdesavg 90¢	$21.6	$24	+$2.4	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
dips.CTR<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 1¢	$0.9	—	-$0.9	47% 1014-1141 (2155)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 7.6¢	$1.03	—	-$1.03	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 3.8¢	$0.46	—	-$0.46	49% 539-568 (1107)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 4¢	$0.2	—	-$0.2	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 6¢	$0.3	—	-$0.3	48% 3273-3600 (6873)