M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Radu David Turcanu vs Daniele Rapagnetta

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Radu David Turcanu (75%) · Radu David Turcanu at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 19

Radu David Turcanu>99¢Daniele Rapagnetta<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Radu David Turcanu

Consensus Traders

Radu David Turcanu 75%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$392.01

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRadu David Turcanu at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Radu David Turcanu

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Radu David Turcanu100%

Daniele Rapagnetta0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Radu David Turcanu6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,699

Combined PnL+$352.11

Daniele Rapagnetta2 traders

Total Value$69.27

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$39.9

Radu David Turcanu — 75%Daniele Rapagnetta — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrums	Radu David Turcanuavg 76.3¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$51.22	47% 327-368 (695)
RN1	Radu David Turcanuavg 73.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$253.83	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
38 38791873984189	Radu David Turcanuavg 74.9¢	$163.33	$188.71	+$41.73	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Radu David Turcanuavg 74.9¢	$86.1	$89.13	+$3.03	41% 247-360 (607)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Daniele Rapagnettaavg 21¢	$29.12	$68.65	+$39.53	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
poshposh<$100	Radu David Turcanuavg 74¢	$37.13	$38.89	+$1.76	47% 509-574 (1083)
LR lryyy<$100	Radu David Turcanuavg 75¢	$16.5	$17.05	+$0.55	44% 375-478 (853)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Daniele Rapagnettaavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.62	+$0.37	51% 2526-2431 (4957)

CandleHammerDrums

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$3,073.65

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$51.22

Record

47%

327-368 (695)

RN1

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$1,071.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$253.83

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

38791873984189

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$163.33

Value

$188.71

PnL

+$41.73

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$86.1

Value

$89.13

PnL

+$3.03

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Daniele Rapagnetta

Invested

$29.12

Value

$68.65

PnL

+$39.53

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

poshposh<$100

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$37.13

Value

$38.89

PnL

+$1.76

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

lryyy<$100

Radu David Turcanu

Invested

$16.5

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Daniele Rapagnetta

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Research grade

NeutralRadu David Turcanu at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Radu David Turcanu

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Radu David Turcanu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.