Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Neus Torner Sensano, while the market favors Katerina Tsygourova (83%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Nules: Katerina Tsygourova vs Neus Torner Sensano
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Neus Torner Sensano (67%) · Neus Torner Sensano at 17¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 21
⚠️
Avoid
Neus Torner Sensano
6
Neus Torner Sensano 67%
$147.87
$67.93
Research grade
AvoidNeus Torner Sensano at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Katerina Tsygourova 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Neus Torner Sensanoavg 16¢ | $22.07 | $60.68 | +$38.62 | 50% 2502-2460 (4962) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Neus Torner Sensanoavg 15¢ | $14.26 | $41.84 | +$27.58 | 48% 509-543 (1052) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Katerina Tsygourovaavg 52.5¢ | $26.25 | $28 | +$1.75 | 50% 1582-1604 (3186) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Katerina Tsygourovaavg 56¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 45% 158-194 (352) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Neus Torner Sensanoavg 45¢ | $4.09 | $4 | -$0.09 | 49% 3800-3964 (7764) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Neus Torner Sensanoavg 43¢ | $3.27 | $3.35 | +$0.08 | 56% 460-366 (826) |
Invested
$22.07
Value
$60.68
PnL
+$38.62
Record
50%
2502-2460 (4962)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$41.84
PnL
+$27.58
Record
48%
509-543 (1052)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$28
PnL
+$1.75
Record
50%
1582-1604 (3186)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
158-194 (352)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
3800-3964 (7764)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.08
Record
56%
460-366 (826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.