W35 Hamamatsu: Chia Yi Tsao vs Kisa Yoshioka

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Chia Yi Tsao (88%) · Chia Yi Tsao at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Chia Yi Tsao>99¢Kisa Yoshioka<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chia Yi Tsao

Consensus Traders

Chia Yi Tsao 88%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$445.36

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChia Yi Tsao at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chia Yi Tsao

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chia Yi Tsao100%

Kisa Yoshioka0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chia Yi Tsao7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,798

Combined PnL+$447.22

Kisa Yoshioka1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$1.86

Chia Yi Tsao — 88%Kisa Yoshioka — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Chia Yi Tsao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChia Yi Tsao 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpChia Yi Tsao 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChia Yi Tsao 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Chia Yi Tsao 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 86.1¢	$701.32	$813.97	+$112.65	51% 25463-24164 (49627)
SL SlickRick123	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 84¢	$611.47	$727.57	+$116.11	48% 5389-5891 (11280)
38 38791873984189	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 83.5¢	$655.35	$684.66	+$120.31	48% 60543-65164 (125707)
poshposh	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 83.7¢	$376.5	$449.78	+$73.28	57% 12624-9619 (22243)
CI cigarettes<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 83.5¢	$83.5	$99.95	+$16.45	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 51¢	$16	$15.99	+$7.83	50% 21060-21316 (42376)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 88¢	$5	$5	+$0.6	82% 7228-1567 (8795)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kisa Yoshiokaavg 36¢	$1.87	$0	-$1.86	47% 11568-12989 (24557)

Flaznorp

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$701.32

Value

$813.97

PnL

+$112.65

Record

51%

25463-24164 (49627)

SlickRick123

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$611.47

Value

$727.57

PnL

+$116.11

Record

48%

5389-5891 (11280)

38791873984189

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$655.35

Value

$684.66

PnL

+$120.31

Record

48%

60543-65164 (125707)

poshposh

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$376.5

Value

$449.78

PnL

+$73.28

Record

57%

12624-9619 (22243)

cigarettes<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$83.5

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$16.45

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$16

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$7.83

Record

50%

21060-21316 (42376)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

82%

7228-1567 (8795)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kisa Yoshioka

Invested

$1.87

Value

PnL

-$1.86

Record

47%

11568-12989 (24557)

Research grade

NeutralChia Yi Tsao at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Chia Yi Tsao

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Chia Yi Tsao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChia Yi Tsao 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpChia Yi Tsao 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChia Yi Tsao 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Chia Yi Tsao 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chia Yi Tsao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.