W50 Yokohama: Chia Yi Tsao vs Kyoka Okamura

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kyoka Okamura (75%) · Kyoka Okamura at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Chia Yi Tsao16¢Kyoka Okamura84¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kyoka Okamura

Consensus Traders

Kyoka Okamura 75%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$706.68

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 84.5¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chia Yi Tsao16%

Kyoka Okamura85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kyoka Okamura9 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,757

Combined PnL+$712.06

Chia Yi Tsao3 traders

Total Value$71.33

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$5.38

Kyoka Okamura — 75%Chia Yi Tsao — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Kyoka Okamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKyoka Okamura 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKyoka Okamura 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kyoka Okamura 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Kyoka Okamuraavg 65¢	$962.9	$1.3K	+$295.83	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
NO NotJump	Kyoka Okamuraavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$94.31	53% 760-685 (1445)
FL Flaznorp	Kyoka Okamuraavg 84¢	$803.57	$801.04	-$2.53	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Kyoka Okamuraavg 85.3¢	$733.09	$747.33	+$14.24	45% 126-151 (277)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kyoka Okamuraavg 80¢	$501.26	$516.76	+$15.5	46% 462-548 (1010)
poshposh	Kyoka Okamuraavg 57.8¢	$327.6	$493.44	+$165.84	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kyoka Okamuraavg 59¢	$186.19	$257.91	+$71.72	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
38 38791873984189	Kyoka Okamuraavg 82.8¢	$670.65	$60.59	+$56.75	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 20¢	$62.48	$40.63	-$21.85	37% 909-1532 (2441)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 15.6¢	$21.24	$17.7	-$3.54	49% 494-515 (1009)
SM smithagent<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 85¢	$17	$17.4	+$0.4	44% 614-768 (1382)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Chia Yi Tsaoavg 16¢	$96.35	$13	+$20	44% 348-451 (799)

RN1

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$962.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$295.83

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

NotJump

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$94.31

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

Flaznorp

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$803.57

Value

$801.04

PnL

-$2.53

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$733.09

Value

$747.33

PnL

+$14.24

Record

45%

126-151 (277)

omnibus-076daa

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$501.26

Value

$516.76

PnL

+$15.5

Record

46%

462-548 (1010)

poshposh

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$327.6

Value

$493.44

PnL

+$165.84

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$186.19

Value

$257.91

PnL

+$71.72

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

38791873984189

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$670.65

Value

$60.59

PnL

+$56.75

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$62.48

Value

$40.63

PnL

-$21.85

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$21.24

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$3.54

Record

49%

494-515 (1009)

smithagent<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$17

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

44%

614-768 (1382)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Chia Yi Tsao

Invested

$96.35

Value

$13

PnL

+$20

Record

44%

348-451 (799)

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Kyoka Okamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKyoka Okamura 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKyoka Okamura 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kyoka Okamura 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kyoka Okamura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.