M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Bautista Torres vs Pedro Sakamoto

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Bautista Torres (40%) · Juan Bautista Torres at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Juan Bautista Torres69¢Pedro Sakamoto31¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Bautista Torres

Consensus Traders

Juan Bautista Torres 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$15.99

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 68.5¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Bautista Torres69%

Pedro Sakamoto32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Bautista Torres4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,416

Combined PnL+$208.54

Pedro Sakamoto6 traders

Total Value$182.42

Total Shares999

Combined PnL-$192.55

Juan Bautista Torres — 40%Pedro Sakamoto — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Juan Bautista Torres) and the top 1000 (10 on Pedro Sakamoto) disagree here.

ctrPedro Sakamoto 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Sakamoto 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Juan Bautista Torresavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.5	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 67.1¢	$908.09	$815.33	-$92.76	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 67.1¢	$496.35	$502.87	+$6.53
└ Pedro Sakamoto leg	Pedro Sakamotoavg 42.2¢	$411.74	$312.45	-$99.29
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Juan Bautista Torresavg 45.6¢	$476.34	$747.29	+$270.95	46% 158-189 (347)
RN1	Juan Bautista Torresavg 84.6¢	$394.11	$294.33	-$99.78	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 54¢	$298.32	$233.68	-$64.64	48% 630-669 (1299)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 67¢	$134.64	$136.65	+$2.01
└ Pedro Sakamoto leg	Pedro Sakamotoavg 54¢	$163.68	$97.03	-$66.65
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 15¢	$52.56	$99.86	+$47.3	46% 631-739 (1370)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pedro Sakamotoavg 55.7¢	$247	$45.44	-$163.56	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 62¢	$14	$19.87	+$5.87	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 37¢	$37	$12	-$25	46% 472-559 (1031)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 36.1¢	$33.65	$11.2	-$22.45	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 36¢	$23.76	$7.92	-$15.84	46% 972-1163 (2135)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pedro Sakamotoavg 38¢	$19	$6	-$13	39% 1558-2440 (3998)

NotJump

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.5

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$908.09

Value

$815.33

PnL

-$92.76

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$496.3567.1¢+$6.53

Pedro Sakamoto$411.7442.2¢-$99.29

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$476.34

Value

$747.29

PnL

+$270.95

Record

46%

158-189 (347)

RN1

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$394.11

Value

$294.33

PnL

-$99.78

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$298.32

Value

$233.68

PnL

-$64.64

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$134.6467¢+$2.01

Pedro Sakamoto$163.6854¢-$66.65

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$52.56

Value

$99.86

PnL

+$47.3

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

38791873984189CTR

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$247

Value

$45.44

PnL

-$163.56

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Pan9X<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$14

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$5.87

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$37

Value

$12

PnL

-$25

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$33.65

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$22.45

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

lryyyCTR<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$23.76

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$15.84

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pedro Sakamoto

Invested

$19

Value

PnL

-$13

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Juan Bautista Torres) and the top 1000 (10 on Pedro Sakamoto) disagree here.

ctrPedro Sakamoto 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Sakamoto 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Bautista Torres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.