W50 Chihuahua: Miriana Tona vs Vivian Wolff

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Vivian Wolff (44%) · Vivian Wolff at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Miriana Tona40¢Vivian Wolff60¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vivian Wolff

Consensus Traders

Vivian Wolff 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$29.2

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 60.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVivian Wolff at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vivian Wolff

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miriana Tona40%

Vivian Wolff61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vivian Wolff4 traders

Total Value$316.01

Total Shares429

Combined PnL+$66.59

Miriana Tona5 traders

Total Value$168.18

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$37.39

Vivian Wolff — 44%Miriana Tona — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Vivian Wolff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiriana Tona 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Vivian Wolff 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.5	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Vivian Wolff leg	Vivian Wolffavg 50¢	$525	$798	+$273
└ Miriana Tona leg	Miriana Tonaavg 50¢	$525	$283.5	-$241.5
38 38791873984189	Vivian Wolffavg 56.7¢	$210.9	$271.75	+$60.85	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 33¢	$68.64	$56.16	-$12.48	62% 26-16 (42)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 40¢	$48.6	$47.96	-$0.64	31% 186-409 (595)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 41.2¢	$64.95	$43.76	-$21.19	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vivian Wolffavg 70¢	$17.5	$19	+$1.5	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 30¢	$17.57	$15.81	-$1.76	34% 690-1345 (2035)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Vivian Wolffavg 55.6¢	$11.02	$13.57	+$2.55	49% 148-156 (304)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Vivian Wolffavg 65¢	$10	$11.69	+$1.69	44% 116-149 (265)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 35¢	$5.81	$4.48	-$1.33	55% 275-224 (499)

NotJumpARB<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.5

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Vivian Wolff$52550¢+$273

Miriana Tona$52550¢-$241.5

38791873984189

Vivian Wolff

Invested

$210.9

Value

$271.75

PnL

+$60.85

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$68.64

Value

$56.16

PnL

-$12.48

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$48.6

Value

$47.96

PnL

-$0.64

Record

31%

186-409 (595)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$64.95

Value

$43.76

PnL

-$21.19

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Pan9X<$100

Vivian Wolff

Invested

$17.5

Value

$19

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

VenusianCTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$17.57

Value

$15.81

PnL

-$1.76

Record

34%

690-1345 (2035)

Eulhunter<$100

Vivian Wolff

Invested

$11.02

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$2.55

Record

49%

148-156 (304)

glennyorkshire<$100

Vivian Wolff

Invested

$10

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$1.69

Record

44%

116-149 (265)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$5.81

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

275-224 (499)

Research grade

NeutralVivian Wolff at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vivian Wolff

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Vivian Wolff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiriana Tona 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Vivian Wolff 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vivian Wolff wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.