W50 Chihuahua: Miriana Tona vs Julia Garcia

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Miriana Tona (56%) · Miriana Tona at 89¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 18

Miriana Tona89¢Julia Garcia11¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miriana Tona

Consensus Traders

Miriana Tona 56%

Total Value

$344.79

Combined PnL

$16.44

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 88.5¢

+70% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiriana Tona at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miriana Tona

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miriana Tona89%

Julia Garcia12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miriana Tona5 traders

Total Value$289.38

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$109.63

Julia Garcia4 traders

Total Value$55.42

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$93.19

Miriana Tona — 56%Julia Garcia — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Miriana Tona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Julia Garcia) and the top 1000 (8 on Miriana Tona) disagree here.

ctrMiriana Tona 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJulia Garcia 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miriana Tona 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Miriana Tonaavg 51¢	$145.07	$243.33	+$98.26	53% 1821-1628 (3449)
RN1CTR	Julia Garciaavg 49¢	$126.91	$44.03	-$82.88	57% 4036-3050 (7086)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 49¢	$16.13	$22.13	+$6.01	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 54¢	$10	$15.36	+$5.37	49% 47-48 (95)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Julia Garciaavg 21¢	$11.23	$8.23	-$3	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
ER Erick2307<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.4	+$0	— 10-3 (13)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Miriana Tonaavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.15	+$0	28% 161-410 (571)
US User7429CTR<$100	Julia Garciaavg 49.7¢	$7.95	$2.24	-$5.71	24% 111-348 (459)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Julia Garciaavg 44¢	$2.52	$0.92	-$1.6	48% 673-715 (1388)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Miriana Tona

Invested

$145.07

Value

$243.33

PnL

+$98.26

Record

53%

1821-1628 (3449)

RN1CTR

Julia Garcia

Invested

$126.91

Value

$44.03

PnL

-$82.88

Record

57%

4036-3050 (7086)

Flaznorp<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$16.13

Value

$22.13

PnL

+$6.01

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

glennyorkshire<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$10

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$5.37

Record

49%

47-48 (95)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Julia Garcia

Invested

$11.23

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

Erick2307<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0

Record

—

10-3 (13)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Miriana Tona

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

161-410 (571)

User7429CTR<$100

Julia Garcia

Invested

$7.95

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$5.71

Record

24%

111-348 (459)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Julia Garcia

Invested

$2.52

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$1.6

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

Research grade

NeutralMiriana Tona at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miriana Tona

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Miriana Tona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Julia Garcia) and the top 1000 (8 on Miriana Tona) disagree here.

ctrMiriana Tona 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJulia Garcia 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miriana Tona 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miriana Tona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.