M15 Antalya: Evgenii Tiurnev vs Alessandro Bellifemine

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alessandro Bellifemine (38%) · Alessandro Bellifemine at 71¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 18

Evgenii Tiurnev30¢Alessandro Bellifemine70¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alessandro Bellifemine

Consensus Traders

Alessandro Bellifemine 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.2K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

39.2¢ → 70.5¢

+80% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlessandro Bellifemine at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alessandro Bellifemine

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Evgenii Tiurnev30%

Alessandro Bellifemine71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alessandro Bellifemine3 traders

Total Value$29.5K

Total Shares42,916

Combined PnL+$12.9K

Evgenii Tiurnev5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares24,344

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Alessandro Bellifemine — 38%Evgenii Tiurnev — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddslover	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 38.5¢	$14.7K	$26.1K	+$11.5K	— 7-7 (14)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 63¢	$12.6K	$6.4K	$-6.2K	51% 3697-3538 (7235)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 47¢	$1.7K	$2.6K	+$851.76	— 5-0 (5)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 64.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$134.75	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 37.7¢	$774.88	$793.24	+$605.4	— 2-3 (5)
CI cigarettesCTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 72.1¢	$1.1K	$673.15	-$456.19	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 57.6¢	$802.02	$246.38	-$305.74	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Evgenii Tiurnev leg	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 57.6¢	$306.86	$157.22	-$320.44
└ Alessandro Bellifemine leg	Alessandro Bellifemineavg 58.9¢	$74.46	$89.16	+$14.7
US User7429CTR	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 63.2¢	$452.65	$211.38	-$241.27	23% 98-336 (434)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Evgenii Tiurnevavg 51.2¢	$35.5	$29.8	-$5.7	46% 225-259 (484)

crazyoddslover

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$14,659.76

Value

$26.1K

PnL

+$11.5K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$12,599.95

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-6.2K

Record

51%

3697-3538 (7235)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$1,706.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$851.76

Record

—

5-0 (5)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$1,290.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$134.75

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8

Alessandro Bellifemine

Invested

$774.88

Value

$793.24

PnL

+$605.4

Record

—

2-3 (5)

cigarettesCTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$1,129.34

Value

$673.15

PnL

-$456.19

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$802.02

Value

$246.38

PnL

-$305.74

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Evgenii Tiurnev$306.8657.6¢-$320.44

Alessandro Bellifemine$74.4658.9¢+$14.7

User7429CTR

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$452.65

Value

$211.38

PnL

-$241.27

Record

23%

98-336 (434)

lryyyCTR<$100

Evgenii Tiurnev

Invested

$35.5

Value

$29.8

PnL

-$5.7

Record

46%

225-259 (484)

Research grade

NeutralAlessandro Bellifemine at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alessandro Bellifemine

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alessandro Bellifemine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.