W15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Jantje Tilbuerger vs Jensen Diianni

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jantje Tilbuerger (63%) · Jantje Tilbuerger at 100¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 12

Jantje Tilbuerger>99¢Jensen Diianni<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jantje Tilbuerger

Consensus Traders

Jantje Tilbuerger 63%

Total Value

$61.75

Combined PnL

$2.71

Research grade

NeutralJantje Tilbuerger at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jantje Tilbuerger

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jantje Tilbuerger100%

Jensen Diianni0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jantje Tilbuerger5 traders

Total Value$38.7

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$4.08

Jensen Diianni3 traders

Total Value$23.05

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$1.36

Jantje Tilbuerger — 63%Jensen Diianni — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Jantje Tilbuerger. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJantje Tilbuerger 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJantje Tilbuerger 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jantje Tilbuerger 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Jantje Tilbuergeravg 73.9¢	$35.08	$22.96	+$2.88	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Jensen Diianniavg 19.7¢	$21.65	$21.26	-$0.39	49% 14704-15378 (30082)
CI cigarettes<$100	Jantje Tilbuergeravg 73¢	$3.03	$4.04	+$1.02	53% 23478-20703 (44181)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jantje Tilbuergeravg 78.9¢	$3.94	$3.9	-$0.04	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Jantje Tilbuergeravg 75.9¢	$3.8	$3.9	+$0.23	50% 21156-21414 (42570)
SE sentrio<$100	Jantje Tilbuergeravg 78¢	$3.9	$3.9	+$0	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jensen Diianniavg 19.8¢	$2.17	$1.27	-$0.91	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Jensen Diianniavg 7.3¢	$0.59	$0.52	-$0.07	59% 32944-23128 (56072)

38791873984189<$100

Jantje Tilbuerger

Invested

$35.08

Value

$22.96

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Jensen Diianni

Invested

$21.65

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

14704-15378 (30082)

cigarettes<$100

Jantje Tilbuerger

Invested

$3.03

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$1.02

Record

53%

23478-20703 (44181)

Flaznorp<$100

Jantje Tilbuerger

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Jantje Tilbuerger

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

21156-21414 (42570)

sentrio<$100

Jantje Tilbuerger

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jensen Diianni

Invested

$2.17

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.91

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Jensen Diianni

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

32944-23128 (56072)

Research grade

NeutralJantje Tilbuerger at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jantje Tilbuerger

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Jantje Tilbuerger. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJantje Tilbuerger 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJantje Tilbuerger 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jantje Tilbuerger 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jantje Tilbuerger wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.