Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Shaoyun Liu, while the market favors Sheng Tang (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Shaoyun Liu

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Shaoyun Liu (57%) · Shaoyun Liu at 0.1¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 19

Sheng Tang>99¢Shaoyun Liu<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shaoyun Liu

Consensus Traders

Shaoyun Liu 57%

Total Value

$96.24

Combined PnL

$3.84

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidShaoyun Liu at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shaoyun Liu

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sheng Tang 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sheng Tang100%

Shaoyun Liu0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sheng Tang3 traders

Total Value$50.62

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$17.88

Shaoyun Liu4 traders

Total Value$45.62

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$14.04

Sheng Tang — 43%Shaoyun Liu — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Sheng Tangavg 37¢	$9.61	$25.35	+$15.74	32% 266-576 (842)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Shaoyun Liuavg 21.3¢	$31.4	$24.94	-$6.46	37% 470-810 (1280)
SM smithagent<$100	Sheng Tangavg 6¢	$1.39	$19.21	+$17.83	42% 303-416 (719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Shaoyun Liuavg 23.1¢	$138.35	$10.28	-$7.07	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Shaoyun Liuavg 39¢	$10	$9.49	-$0.51	49% 76-78 (154)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Sheng Tangavg 61¢	$21.74	$6.06	-$15.68	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Shaoyun Liuavg 37¢	$0.92	$0.92	+$0	53% 177-159 (336)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Sheng Tang

Invested

$9.61

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$15.74

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Shaoyun Liu

Invested

$31.4

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$6.46

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

smithagent<$100

Sheng Tang

Invested

$1.39

Value

$19.21

PnL

+$17.83

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

38791873984189CTR

Shaoyun Liu

Invested

$138.35

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$7.07

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Shaoyun Liu

Invested

$10

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$0.51

Record

49%

76-78 (154)

Flaznorp<$100

Sheng Tang

Invested

$21.74

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$15.68

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Shaoyun Liu

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

177-159 (336)

Research grade

AvoidShaoyun Liu at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Shaoyun Liu

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sheng Tang 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shaoyun Liu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.