W50 Heraklion: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Martha MATOULA

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Martha MATOULA (78%) · Martha MATOULA at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Lucie Nguyen Tan<1¢Martha MATOULA>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martha MATOULA

Consensus Traders

Martha MATOULA 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$206.43

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartha MATOULA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martha MATOULA

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lucie Nguyen Tan0%

Martha MATOULA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martha MATOULA7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,226

Combined PnL+$242.99

Lucie Nguyen Tan2 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares121

Combined PnL-$36.56

Martha MATOULA — 78%Lucie Nguyen Tan — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Martha MATOULA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMartha MATOULA 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Martha MATOULA 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Martha MATOULAavg 68.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$228.79	53% 61720-54034 (115754)
FL Flaznorp	Martha MATOULAavg 68.9¢	$963.24	$934.48	-$28.76	51% 26303-24938 (51241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 36.7¢	$565.66	$373.4	-$192.26	46% 1659-1942 (3601)
└ Martha MATOULA leg	Martha MATOULAavg 47.2¢	$150.7	$297.63	+$146.93
└ Lucie Nguyen Tan leg	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 36.7¢	$414.96	$75.78	-$339.18
TH thestingsnake	Martha MATOULAavg 71.4¢	$230.64	$239.25	+$60.79	60% 4471-2987 (7458)
38 38791873984189	Martha MATOULAavg 72.7¢	$217.63	$135.02	-$13.09	48% 61747-66610 (128357)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 75¢	$29.54	$27.53	-$2.01	54% 6299-5362 (11661)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 92.4¢	$20.85	$16.54	-$4.31	50% 21336-21619 (42955)
SE sentrio<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 85¢	$8.99	$10.57	+$1.58	50% 26081-25734 (51815)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 30.5¢	$36.6	$0.06	-$36.54	64% 5317-2929 (8246)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 2¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.02	53% 23800-20961 (44761)

RN1

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$1,537.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$228.79

Record

53%

61720-54034 (115754)

Flaznorp

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$963.24

Value

$934.48

PnL

-$28.76

Record

51%

26303-24938 (51241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$565.66

Value

$373.4

PnL

-$192.26

Record

46%

1659-1942 (3601)

Both legs:

Martha MATOULA$150.747.2¢+$146.93

Lucie Nguyen Tan$414.9636.7¢-$339.18

thestingsnake

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$230.64

Value

$239.25

PnL

+$60.79

Record

60%

4471-2987 (7458)

38791873984189

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$217.63

Value

$135.02

PnL

-$13.09

Record

48%

61747-66610 (128357)

Eulhunter<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$29.54

Value

$27.53

PnL

-$2.01

Record

54%

6299-5362 (11661)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$20.85

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$4.31

Record

50%

21336-21619 (42955)

sentrio<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$8.99

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$1.58

Record

50%

26081-25734 (51815)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$36.6

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$36.54

Record

64%

5317-2929 (8246)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

23800-20961 (44761)

Research grade

NeutralMartha MATOULA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Martha MATOULA

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Martha MATOULA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMartha MATOULA 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMartha MATOULA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Martha MATOULA 80% · 5

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martha MATOULA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.