M15 Maanshan: ZHENGYU SUN vs Jordan Chiu
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jordan Chiu (40%) · Jordan Chiu at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Jordan Chiu
5
Jordan Chiu 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$193.05
80.4¢ → 87.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJordan Chiu at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Jordan Chiu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Jordan Chiuavg 80.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$173.63 | 46% 36-42 (78) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | ZHENGYU SUNavg 19¢ | $200.19 | $215.99 | +$15.8 | 40% 136-207 (343) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Jordan Chiuavg 74.4¢ | $88.9 | $90.34 | +$1.44 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
| └ Jordan Chiu leg | Jordan Chiuavg 74.4¢ | $55.02 | $58.77 | +$3.75 | |
| └ ZHENGYU SUN leg | ZHENGYU SUNavg 22¢ | $33.88 | $31.57 | -$2.31 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | ZHENGYU SUNavg 20.4¢ | $36.43 | $36.7 | +$0.27 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | ZHENGYU SUNavg 19¢ | $23.46 | $25.31 | +$1.85 | 28% 305-773 (1078) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jordan Chiuavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $20.25 | +$1.5 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
Invested
$1,986.85
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$173.63
Record
46%
36-42 (78)
Invested
$200.19
Value
$215.99
PnL
+$15.8
Record
40%
136-207 (343)
Invested
$88.9
Value
$90.34
PnL
+$1.44
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.43
Value
$36.7
PnL
+$0.27
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$23.46
Value
$25.31
PnL
+$1.85
Record
28%
305-773 (1078)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.