Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Perawat Sukjai, while the market favors Artem Bogomolov (56%). 8 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

M15 Hua Hin: Perawat Sukjai vs Artem Bogomolov

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Perawat Sukjai (38%) · Perawat Sukjai at 45¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 22

Perawat Sukjai45¢Artem Bogomolov55¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Perawat Sukjai

Consensus Traders

Perawat Sukjai 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 44.5¢

-23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPerawat Sukjai at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Perawat Sukjai

8 of 21 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Artem Bogomolov 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Perawat Sukjai45%

Artem Bogomolov56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Perawat Sukjai8 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares49,772

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Artem Bogomolov13 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares52,777

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Perawat Sukjai — 38%Artem Bogomolov — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MAJADOARGENTINOCTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 55.8¢	$10.1K	$9.1K	+$27.99	— 8-1 (9)
CR crazyoddsloverCTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 55.2¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	-$366.86	— 10-9 (19)
dips.	Artem Bogomolovavg 46.8¢	$5.1K	$4.8K	-$250.64	48% 1283-1366 (2649)
SM smithagent	Artem Bogomolovavg 45.8¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$131.88	46% 862-1002 (1864)
KA kalmalCTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 64.7¢	$4.7K	$3.9K	-$815.99	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$92.83	— 5-7 (12)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Artem Bogomolovavg 49.2¢	$4.2K	$3.0K	+$84.21	49% 616-642 (1258)
AR arman1969CTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 62¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$279.39	— 4-1 (5)
SL SlickRick123	Artem Bogomolovavg 45.4¢	$6.1K	$2.1K	$-4.0K	37% 477-809 (1286)
poshposh	Artem Bogomolovavg 51¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$179.8	49% 1298-1372 (2670)
JA JabJabichCTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 56.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$113.55	35% 44-82 (126)
CI cigarettes	Artem Bogomolovavg 37.5¢	$988.3	$1.2K	+$172.36	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Artem Bogomolovavg 50¢	$1.1K	$742.5	+$17.5	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
└ Artem Bogomolov leg	Artem Bogomolovavg 50¢	$525	$404.25	-$120.75
└ Perawat Sukjai leg	Perawat Sukjaiavg 50¢	$275	$338.25	+$138.25
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Artem Bogomolovavg 49.4¢	$767.04	$724.87	-$42.17	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 55.9¢	$646.17	$629.44	-$16.73	— 9-2 (11)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Artem Bogomolovavg 53.4¢	$484.8	$534.2	+$49.4	45% 449-545 (994)
38 38791873984189	Artem Bogomolovavg 47.1¢	$1.1K	$524.7	-$78.25	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
LR lryyy	Artem Bogomolovavg 46¢	$1.1K	$364.45	-$716.49	46% 950-1137 (2087)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Perawat Sukjaiavg 86.1¢	$193.05	$116.57	-$76.48	46% 607-722 (1329)
US User7429	Artem Bogomolovavg 49.4¢	$110.67	$86.22	-$24.45	43% 429-562 (991)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Artem Bogomolovavg 45.4¢	$50.66	$43.53	-$7.13	41% 702-1022 (1724)
PA Pan9X<$100	Artem Bogomolovavg 42.4¢	$28.86	$35.36	+$6.5	50% 2155-2179 (4334)

MAJADOARGENTINOCTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$10,137.83

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$27.99

Record

—

8-1 (9)

crazyoddsloverCTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$6,406.6

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$366.86

Record

—

10-9 (19)

dips.

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$5,075.89

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$250.64

Record

48%

1283-1366 (2649)

smithagent

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$4,563.12

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$131.88

Record

46%

862-1002 (1864)

kalmalCTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$4,731.23

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$815.99

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$3,358.95

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$92.83

Record

—

5-7 (12)

CandleHammerDrums

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$4,152.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$84.21

Record

49%

616-642 (1258)

arman1969CTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$2,664.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$279.39

Record

—

4-1 (5)

SlickRick123

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$6,112.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

37%

477-809 (1286)

poshposh

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$1,843.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$179.8

Record

49%

1298-1372 (2670)

JabJabichCTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$1,406.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$113.55

Record

35%

44-82 (126)

cigarettes

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$988.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$172.36

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

NotJumpARB<$100

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$1,050

Value

$742.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Both legs:

Artem Bogomolov$52550¢-$120.75

Perawat Sukjai$27550¢+$138.25

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$767.04

Value

$724.87

PnL

-$42.17

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$646.17

Value

$629.44

PnL

-$16.73

Record

—

9-2 (11)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$484.8

Value

$534.2

PnL

+$49.4

Record

45%

449-545 (994)

38791873984189

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$1,136.46

Value

$524.7

PnL

-$78.25

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

lryyy

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$1,080.93

Value

$364.45

PnL

-$716.49

Record

46%

950-1137 (2087)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Perawat Sukjai

Invested

$193.05

Value

$116.57

PnL

-$76.48

Record

46%

607-722 (1329)

User7429

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$110.67

Value

$86.22

PnL

-$24.45

Record

43%

429-562 (991)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$50.66

Value

$43.53

PnL

-$7.13

Record

41%

702-1022 (1724)

Pan9X<$100

Artem Bogomolov

Invested

$28.86

Value

$35.36

PnL

+$6.5

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

Research grade

NeutralPerawat Sukjai at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Perawat Sukjai

8 of 21 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Artem Bogomolov 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Perawat Sukjai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.