W50 Heraklion: Antonia Stoyanov vs Alisa Oktiabreva

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Antonia Stoyanov (55%) · Antonia Stoyanov at 57¢ · $453 held · ends Nov 11

Antonia Stoyanov57¢Alisa Oktiabreva43¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Antonia Stoyanov

Consensus Traders

Antonia Stoyanov 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$452.55

Combined PnL

$65.65

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 57.5¢

+76% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAntonia Stoyanov at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Antonia Stoyanov

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Antonia Stoyanov57%

Alisa Oktiabreva43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Antonia Stoyanov6 traders

Total Value$200.6

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$66.3

Alisa Oktiabreva5 traders

Total Value$185.09

Total Shares249

Combined PnL-$0.65

Antonia Stoyanov — 55%Alisa Oktiabreva — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Antonia Stoyanovavg 36.1¢	$69.02	$125.75	+$56.73	46% 1376-1620 (2996)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 64¢	$88.88	$66.86	-$22.02	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
└ Alisa Oktiabreva leg	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 64¢	$65.28	$43.86	-$21.42
└ Antonia Stoyanov leg	Antonia Stoyanovavg 59¢	$23.6	$23	-$0.6
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 72.6¢	$66.58	$65.14	-$1.45	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 68.4¢	$51.47	$53.58	+$2.11	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 74¢	$27.04	$25.95	-$1.09	59% 31823-22454 (54277)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 73.9¢	$26.96	$25.9	-$1.06	51% 11785-11169 (22954)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Antonia Stoyanovavg 29.4¢	$24.7	$20.71	-$0.87	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Antonia Stoyanovavg 26¢	$10.69	$18.67	+$7.98	47% 10953-12334 (23287)
RN1<$100	Antonia Stoyanovavg 24.8¢	$16.13	$18.51	+$2.38	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 44¢	$13.68	$14.53	+$0.84	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
DI dips.<$100	Antonia Stoyanovavg 29¢	$10.21	$10.2	-$0	47% 10274-11665 (21939)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Antonia Stoyanovavg 66.6¢	$6.66	$6.75	+$0.09	82% 6948-1498 (8446)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$69.02

Value

$125.75

PnL

+$56.73

Record

46%

1376-1620 (2996)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$88.88

Value

$66.86

PnL

-$22.02

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

Both legs:

Alisa Oktiabreva$65.2864¢-$21.42

Antonia Stoyanov$23.659¢-$0.6

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$66.58

Value

$65.14

PnL

-$1.45

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$51.47

Value

$53.58

PnL

+$2.11

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$27.04

Value

$25.95

PnL

-$1.09

Record

59%

31823-22454 (54277)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$26.96

Value

$25.9

PnL

-$1.06

Record

51%

11785-11169 (22954)

thestingsnake<$100

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$24.7

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$0.87

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

topdogbigboi<$100

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$10.69

Value

$18.67

PnL

+$7.98

Record

47%

10953-12334 (23287)

RN1<$100

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$16.13

Value

$18.51

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$13.68

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

dips.<$100

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

10274-11665 (21939)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Antonia Stoyanov

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.09

Record

82%

6948-1498 (8446)

Research grade

NeutralAntonia Stoyanov at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Antonia Stoyanov

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Antonia Stoyanov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.