W35 Heraklion: Tina Nadine Smith vs Lucie Nguyen Tan

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tina Nadine Smith (63%) · Tina Nadine Smith at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19

Tina Nadine Smith>99¢Lucie Nguyen Tan<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tina Nadine Smith

Consensus Traders

Tina Nadine Smith 63%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$74.7

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTina Nadine Smith at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tina Nadine Smith

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tina Nadine Smith100%

Lucie Nguyen Tan0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tina Nadine Smith5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,559

Combined PnL+$943.6

Lucie Nguyen Tan3 traders

Total Value$740.25

Total Shares3,090

Combined PnL-$868.91

Tina Nadine Smith — 63%Lucie Nguyen Tan — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Tina Nadine Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lucie Nguyen Tan) and the top 1000 (8 on Tina Nadine Smith) disagree here.

ctrTina Nadine Smith 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedLucie Nguyen Tan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tina Nadine Smith 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tina Nadine Smithavg 68.8¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$784.87	51% 2054-1966 (4020)
FL Flaznorp	Tina Nadine Smithavg 78.1¢	$594.65	$760.62	+$165.97	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
RN1CTR	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 31.7¢	$1.6K	$740.2	-$850.31	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
38 38791873984189	Tina Nadine Smithavg 95.7¢	$334.29	$156.92	-$20.13	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Tina Nadine Smithavg 31¢	$4.03	$12.48	+$8.45	47% 95-107 (202)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Tina Nadine Smithavg 54¢	$5.71	$10.14	+$4.44	47% 327-367 (694)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 21.4¢	$34.89	$0.04	-$16.45	30% 168-395 (563)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Lucie Nguyen Tanavg 18¢	$2.16	$0.01	-$2.15	50% 135-134 (269)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$2,242.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$784.87

Record

51%

2054-1966 (4020)

Flaznorp

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$594.65

Value

$760.62

PnL

+$165.97

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

RN1CTR

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$1,592.67

Value

$740.2

PnL

-$850.31

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

38791873984189

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$334.29

Value

$156.92

PnL

-$20.13

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

glennyorkshire<$100

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$4.03

Value

$12.48

PnL

+$8.45

Record

47%

95-107 (202)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$5.71

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$4.44

Record

47%

327-367 (694)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$34.89

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$16.45

Record

30%

168-395 (563)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Lucie Nguyen Tan

Invested

$2.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.15

Record

50%

135-134 (269)

Research grade

NeutralTina Nadine Smith at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Tina Nadine Smith

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Tina Nadine Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lucie Nguyen Tan) and the top 1000 (8 on Tina Nadine Smith) disagree here.

ctrTina Nadine Smith 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedLucie Nguyen Tan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tina Nadine Smith 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tina Nadine Smith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.