W50 Heraklion: Tina Nadine Smith vs Alessandra Crump

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Tina Nadine Smith (44%) · Tina Nadine Smith at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Tina Nadine Smith>99¢Alessandra Crump<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tina Nadine Smith

Consensus Traders

Tina Nadine Smith 44%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$114.9

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 99.2¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTina Nadine Smith at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tina Nadine Smith

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tina Nadine Smith99%

Alessandra Crump1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tina Nadine Smith4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,193

Combined PnL-$22.26

Alessandra Crump5 traders

Total Value$221.78

Total Shares5,691

Combined PnL-$92.64

Tina Nadine Smith — 44%Alessandra Crump — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Tina Nadine Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTina Nadine Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlessandra Crump 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Alessandra Crump 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Tina Nadine Smithavg 95.1¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$72	83% 30-6 (36)
NO NotJump	Tina Nadine Smithavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.8	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Tina Nadine Smithavg 94.3¢	$119.99	$126.22	+$6.23	39% 333-530 (863)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Alessandra Crumpavg 6.1¢	$104.14	$123.66	+$19.52	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Alessandra Crumpavg 6.1¢	$52.11	$62.74	+$10.63	48% 630-669 (1299)
CI cigarettes<$100	Tina Nadine Smithavg 98.4¢	$17.69	$44.4	+$26.71	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
SM smithagentCTR	Alessandra Crumpavg 4.9¢	$146.05	$23.84	-$122.21	46% 877-1027 (1904)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Alessandra Crumpavg 8.1¢	$10.31	$9.34	-$0.97	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
dips.CTR<$100	Alessandra Crumpavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.19	+$0.39	48% 1300-1386 (2686)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$2,853

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$72

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

NotJump

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.8

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$119.99

Value

$126.22

PnL

+$6.23

Record

39%

333-530 (863)

topdogbigboiCTR

Alessandra Crump

Invested

$104.14

Value

$123.66

PnL

+$19.52

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Alessandra Crump

Invested

$52.11

Value

$62.74

PnL

+$10.63

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

cigarettes<$100

Tina Nadine Smith

Invested

$17.69

Value

$44.4

PnL

+$26.71

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

smithagentCTR

Alessandra Crump

Invested

$146.05

Value

$23.84

PnL

-$122.21

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Alessandra Crump

Invested

$10.31

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

dips.CTR<$100

Alessandra Crump

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

Research grade

NeutralTina Nadine Smith at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Tina Nadine Smith

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Tina Nadine Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTina Nadine Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlessandra Crump 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Alessandra Crump 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tina Nadine Smith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.