Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Emerson Jones, while the market favors Astra Sharma (67%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Brisbane: Astra Sharma vs Emerson Jones

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Emerson Jones (63%) · Emerson Jones at 33¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 19

Astra Sharma67¢Emerson Jones33¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Emerson Jones

Consensus Traders

Emerson Jones 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 33¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEmerson Jones at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Emerson Jones

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Astra Sharma 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Astra Sharma67%

Emerson Jones33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astra Sharma3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares20,212

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Emerson Jones5 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares17,795

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Astra Sharma — 38%Emerson Jones — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Emerson Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEmerson Jones 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Emerson Jones 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918	Astra Sharmaavg 45¢	$9.0K	$5.6K	$-3.4K	50% 18-18 (36)
SM smithagentCTR	Emerson Jonesavg 55¢	$6.3K	$4.4K	$-2.0K	43% 321-434 (755)
dips.CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 55¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$790.16	45% 506-615 (1121)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 55.8¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$319.31	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Emerson Jones leg	Emerson Jonesavg 55.8¢	$976.3	$1.3K	+$283.92
└ Astra Sharma leg	Astra Sharmaavg 25.8¢	$425.4	$460.8	+$35.39
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 45.7¢	$492.63	$372.09	-$120.54	— 3-10 (13)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 35¢	$147.01	$277.38	+$130.37	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ Emerson Jones leg	Emerson Jonesavg 35¢	$97.08	$199.71	+$102.63
└ Astra Sharma leg	Astra Sharmaavg 18¢	$49.93	$77.66	+$27.74
US User7429CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 55¢	$218.86	$151.21	-$67.65	32% 182-386 (568)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 55¢	$101.34	$70.02	-$31.32	57% 83-62 (145)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Astra Sharmaavg 41¢	$73.39	$50.12	-$23.27	52% 180-163 (343)
CI cigarettes<$100	Astra Sharmaavg 54¢	$17.83	$19.32	+$1.49	53% 6040-5408 (11448)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918

Astra Sharma

Invested

$8,999.98

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

smithagentCTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$6,317.27

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

43%

321-434 (755)

dips.CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$2,556.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$790.16

Record

45%

506-615 (1121)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$1,401.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$319.31

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Emerson Jones$976.355.8¢+$283.92

Astra Sharma$425.425.8¢+$35.39

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$492.63

Value

$372.09

PnL

-$120.54

Record

—

3-10 (13)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$147.01

Value

$277.38

PnL

+$130.37

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

Emerson Jones$97.0835¢+$102.63

Astra Sharma$49.9318¢+$27.74

User7429CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$218.86

Value

$151.21

PnL

-$67.65

Record

32%

182-386 (568)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$101.34

Value

$70.02

PnL

-$31.32

Record

57%

83-62 (145)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Astra Sharma

Invested

$73.39

Value

$50.12

PnL

-$23.27

Record

52%

180-163 (343)

cigarettes<$100

Astra Sharma

Invested

$17.83

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$1.49

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

Research grade

NeutralEmerson Jones at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Emerson Jones

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Astra Sharma 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Emerson Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEmerson Jones 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Emerson Jones 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Emerson Jones wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.