W35 Heraklion: Natalija Senic vs Alisa Oktiabreva

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alisa Oktiabreva (75%) · Alisa Oktiabreva at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Natalija Senic<1¢Alisa Oktiabreva>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alisa Oktiabreva

Consensus Traders

Alisa Oktiabreva 75%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$0.2

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.7¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natalija Senic0%

Alisa Oktiabreva100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natalija Senic2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,354

Combined PnL+$3.04

Alisa Oktiabreva6 traders

Total Value$907.81

Total Shares949

Combined PnL-$2.84

Natalija Senic — 25%Alisa Oktiabreva — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Natalija Senicavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 417-355 (772)
CI cigarettes	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 96.7¢	$290	$290.85	+$0.85	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
alpheclabs2	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 95¢	$280.25	$278.78	-$1.48	45% 186-224 (410)
poshposh	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 95.7¢	$180.72	$178.45	-$2.27	47% 507-571 (1078)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 96.9¢	$150.04	$150.12	+$0.08	47% 325-361 (686)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Natalija Senicavg 4.5¢	$13.66	$16.7	+$3.04	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
38 38791873984189<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 97¢	$4.89	$4.89	-$0	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.73	-$0.03	50% 131-132 (263)

NotJumpCTR

Natalija Senic

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

cigarettes

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$290

Value

$290.85

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

alpheclabs2

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$280.25

Value

$278.78

PnL

-$1.48

Record

45%

186-224 (410)

poshposh

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$180.72

Value

$178.45

PnL

-$2.27

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

CandleHammerDrums

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$150.04

Value

$150.12

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

325-361 (686)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Natalija Senic

Invested

$13.66

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$3.04

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

38791873984189<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

Eulhunter<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

131-132 (263)

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alisa Oktiabreva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.