Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LUCCA LIU, while the market favors Jack Secord (69%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Naples, FL: Jack Secord vs LUCCA LIU

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LUCCA LIU (88%) · LUCCA LIU at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Jack Secord69¢LUCCA LIU31¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LUCCA LIU

Consensus Traders

LUCCA LIU 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$108.09

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 31¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLUCCA LIU at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LUCCA LIU

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Jack Secord 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jack Secord69%

LUCCA LIU31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LUCCA LIU7 traders

Total Value$494.05

Total Shares829

Combined PnL+$108.09

Jack Secord1 trader

Total Value$17.17

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0

LUCCA LIU — 88%Jack Secord — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on LUCCA LIU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLUCCA LIU 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000LUCCA LIU 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jack Secordavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$94.5	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Jack Secord leg	Jack Secordavg 50¢	$525	$609	+$84
└ LUCCA LIU leg	LUCCA LIUavg 50¢	$525	$535.5	+$10.5
38 38791873984189CTR	LUCCA LIUavg 50.6¢	$247.73	$323.39	+$75.66	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 41.7¢	$68.28	$83.48	+$15.2	56% 656-516 (1172)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 40¢	$40.36	$51.46	+$11.1	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Jack Secordavg 58¢	$17.17	$17.17	+$0	46% 643-756 (1399)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 44¢	$9.24	$13.86	+$4.62	47% 226-251 (477)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 37.6¢	$11.9	$11.54	-$0.36	41% 739-1047 (1786)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 40¢	$6.54	$8.34	+$1.8	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	LUCCA LIUavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.98	+$0.08	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$94.5

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Jack Secord$52550¢+$84

LUCCA LIU$52550¢+$10.5

38791873984189CTR

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$247.73

Value

$323.39

PnL

+$75.66

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$68.28

Value

$83.48

PnL

+$15.2

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$40.36

Value

$51.46

PnL

+$11.1

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$17.17

Value

$17.17

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$9.24

Value

$13.86

PnL

+$4.62

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$11.9

Value

$11.54

PnL

-$0.36

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

sentrioCTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$6.54

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$1.8

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

LUCCA LIU

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralLUCCA LIU at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LUCCA LIU

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Jack Secord 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on LUCCA LIU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLUCCA LIU 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000LUCCA LIU 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LUCCA LIU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.