Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dragos Cazacu, while the market favors Jack Secord (69%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Naples, FL: Jack Secord vs Dragos Cazacu

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dragos Cazacu (44%) · Dragos Cazacu at 31¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Jack Secord69¢Dragos Cazacu31¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dragos Cazacu

Consensus Traders

Dragos Cazacu 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$5.48

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 31¢

-37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDragos Cazacu at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Cazacu

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Jack Secord 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jack Secord69%

Dragos Cazacu31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dragos Cazacu4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,925

Combined PnL+$0.43

Jack Secord5 traders

Total Value$446.07

Total Shares918

Combined PnL+$5.05

Dragos Cazacu — 44%Jack Secord — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Cazacu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Cazacu 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Cazacu 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI finzemCTR	Dragos Cazacuavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	— 4-2 (6)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$301	$315.55	+$14.55	49% 525-557 (1082)
└ Jack Secord leg	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$232.8	$247.35	+$14.55
└ Dragos Cazacu leg	Dragos Cazacuavg 49¢	$68.2	$68.2	-$0
SM smithagent	Jack Secordavg 48.1¢	$298.41	$294.91	-$3.5	44% 661-825 (1486)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$180.24	$194.14	+$13.9	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
└ Jack Secord leg	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$96	$102	+$6
└ Dragos Cazacu leg	Dragos Cazacuavg 44.8¢	$84.24	$92.14	+$7.9
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$132.41	$140.69	+$8.28	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jack Secordavg 49.3¢	$97.86	$100.21	+$2.35	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Jack Secord leg	Jack Secordavg 49.3¢	$66.5	$68.85	+$2.35
└ Dragos Cazacu leg	Dragos Cazacuavg 49¢	$31.36	$31.36	+$0
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Dragos Cazacuavg 50¢	$448	$18.82	+$0.33	69% 133-60 (193)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Dragos Cazacuavg 46¢	$10	$10	+$0	44% 164-206 (370)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Jack Secordavg 48¢	$7.2	$7.65	+$0.45	45% 381-474 (855)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Dragos Cazacuavg 43¢	$1.5	$1.61	+$0.1	55% 474-384 (858)
VE Venusian<$100	Jack Secordavg 50¢	$1.55	$1.46	-$0.09	37% 968-1674 (2642)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jack Secordavg 50¢	$1.45	$1.36	-$0.09	49% 3867-4029 (7896)

finzemCTR

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$2,381.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-2 (6)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$301

Value

$315.55

PnL

+$14.55

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

Both legs:

Jack Secord$232.848¢+$14.55

Dragos Cazacu$68.249¢-$0

smithagent

Jack Secord

Invested

$298.41

Value

$294.91

PnL

-$3.5

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$180.24

Value

$194.14

PnL

+$13.9

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Both legs:

Jack Secord$9648¢+$6

Dragos Cazacu$84.2444.8¢+$7.9

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jack Secord

Invested

$132.41

Value

$140.69

PnL

+$8.28

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$97.86

Value

$100.21

PnL

+$2.35

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Jack Secord$66.549.3¢+$2.35

Dragos Cazacu$31.3649¢+$0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$448

Value

$18.82

PnL

+$0.33

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

164-206 (370)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

45%

381-474 (855)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Dragos Cazacu

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

Venusian<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.09

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Flaznorp<$100

Jack Secord

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Research grade

NeutralDragos Cazacu at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Cazacu

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Jack Secord 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Cazacu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Cazacu 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Cazacu 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dragos Cazacu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.