M25 Vale do Lobo: Kenny De Schepper vs Garrett Johns

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Garrett Johns (73%) · Garrett Johns at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Kenny De Schepper45¢Garrett Johns55¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Garrett Johns

Consensus Traders

Garrett Johns 73%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$101.43

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 54.5¢

-24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGarrett Johns at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Garrett Johns

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kenny De Schepper45%

Garrett Johns55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Garrett Johns8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,368

Combined PnL+$82.27

Kenny De Schepper3 traders

Total Value$27.25

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$19.16

Garrett Johns — 73%Kenny De Schepper — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Garrett Johns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGarrett Johns 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedGarrett Johns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Garrett Johns 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Garrett Johnsavg 50¢	$1.1K	$975	-$40.5	54% 427-363 (790)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Garrett Johnsavg 93.4¢	$1.1K	$765	-$65.1	47% 327-367 (694)
FL Flaznorp	Garrett Johnsavg 62.9¢	$436.84	$581.86	+$145.02	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
RN1	Garrett Johnsavg 62.6¢	$198.5	$287.67	+$89.17	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
poshposh	Garrett Johnsavg 93.5¢	$280.5	$255	-$25.5	47% 508-573 (1081)
38 38791873984189	Garrett Johnsavg 93.5¢	$506.21	$95.11	-$13.08	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Garrett Johnsavg 93¢	$93	$85	-$8	41% 247-360 (607)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kenny De Schepperavg 5¢	$5.81	$17.3	+$11.49	51% 2054-1966 (4020)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kenny De Schepperavg 3.5¢	$2.15	$9.2	+$7.05	37% 527-907 (1434)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Garrett Johnsavg 79.9¢	$4	$4.26	+$0.26	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Kenny De Schepperavg 2.5¢	$0.13	$0.75	+$0.63	32% 292-618 (910)

NotJump

Garrett Johns

Invested

$1,050

Value

$975

PnL

-$40.5

Record

54%

427-363 (790)

CandleHammerDrums

Garrett Johns

Invested

$1,130.1

Value

$765

PnL

-$65.1

Record

47%

327-367 (694)

Flaznorp

Garrett Johns

Invested

$436.84

Value

$581.86

PnL

+$145.02

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

RN1

Garrett Johns

Invested

$198.5

Value

$287.67

PnL

+$89.17

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

poshposh

Garrett Johns

Invested

$280.5

Value

$255

PnL

-$25.5

Record

47%

508-573 (1081)

38791873984189

Garrett Johns

Invested

$506.21

Value

$95.11

PnL

-$13.08

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Garrett Johns

Invested

$93

Value

$85

PnL

-$8

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kenny De Schepper

Invested

$5.81

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$11.49

Record

51%

2054-1966 (4020)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kenny De Schepper

Invested

$2.15

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$7.05

Record

37%

527-907 (1434)

ferdinand2<$100

Garrett Johns

Invested

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Kenny De Schepper

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.63

Record

32%

292-618 (910)

Research grade

NeutralGarrett Johns at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Garrett Johns

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Garrett Johns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGarrett Johns 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedGarrett Johns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Garrett Johns 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Garrett Johns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.8%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.