W50 Yokohama: Kanon Sawashiro vs Caroline Werner

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Kanon Sawashiro (64%) · Kanon Sawashiro at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 19

Kanon Sawashiro>99¢Caroline Werner<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kanon Sawashiro

Consensus Traders

Kanon Sawashiro 64%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$338.7

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 99.5¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKanon Sawashiro at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kanon Sawashiro

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kanon Sawashiro100%

Caroline Werner1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kanon Sawashiro9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,589

Combined PnL+$340.09

Caroline Werner5 traders

Total Value$38.44

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$1.39

Kanon Sawashiro — 64%Caroline Werner — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Kanon Sawashiroavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$9.24	—
NO NotJump	Kanon Sawashiroavg 60.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30.3	—
38 38791873984189	Kanon Sawashiroavg 69.2¢	$366.93	$527.27	+$160.34	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
FL Flaznorp	Kanon Sawashiroavg 62¢	$258.65	$365.11	+$106.46	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
CI cigarettes	Kanon Sawashiroavg 97¢	$144.53	$148.26	+$3.72	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Kanon Sawashiroavg 86¢	$118.56	$135.79	+$17.23	—
LR lryyy<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 93.1¢	$83.54	$89.3	+$5.76	45% 262-316 (578)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 90.9¢	$64.1	$69.49	+$5.39	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 94.5¢	$30.7	$32.34	+$1.64	18% 36-164 (200)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 67.6¢	$15.54	$16.91	+$1.37	29% 180-434 (614)
RN1CTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 43¢	$10.81	$15.51	+$4.7	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 48¢	$4.11	$4.46	+$0.35	—
dips.CTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 3¢	$6.24	$1.04	-$5.2	42% 230-316 (546)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 3¢	$3.12	$0.52	-$2.6	—

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$1,829.52

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$9.24

Record

—

NotJump

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$1,352.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.3

Record

—

38791873984189

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$366.93

Value

$527.27

PnL

+$160.34

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Flaznorp

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$258.65

Value

$365.11

PnL

+$106.46

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

cigarettes

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$144.53

Value

$148.26

PnL

+$3.72

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

CandleHammerDrums

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$118.56

Value

$135.79

PnL

+$17.23

Record

—

lryyy<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$83.54

Value

$89.3

PnL

+$5.76

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$64.1

Value

$69.49

PnL

+$5.39

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$30.7

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$1.64

Record

18%

36-164 (200)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$15.54

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$1.37

Record

29%

180-434 (614)

RN1CTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$10.81

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$4.7

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$4.11

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

dips.CTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$6.24

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$5.2

Record

42%

230-316 (546)

smithagentCTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$3.12

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.6

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralKanon Sawashiro at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Kanon Sawashiro

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kanon Sawashiro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.