W50 Yokohama: Kanon Sawashiro vs Heather Watson

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heather Watson (25%) · Heather Watson at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

Kanon Sawashiro25¢Heather Watson75¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heather Watson

Consensus Traders

Heather Watson 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$411.09

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 75.5¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeather Watson at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heather Watson

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kanon Sawashiro25%

Heather Watson76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heather Watson2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,412

Combined PnL+$262.37

Kanon Sawashiro6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,518

Combined PnL+$148.72

Heather Watson — 25%Kanon Sawashiro — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Heather Watson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeather Watson 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKanon Sawashiro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kanon Sawashiro 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Heather Watsonavg 68.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$263.79	44% 119-151 (270)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	53% 750-672 (1422)
└ Heather Watson leg	Heather Watsonavg 50¢	$525	$651	+$126
└ Kanon Sawashiro leg	Kanon Sawashiroavg 50¢	$525	$399	-$126
FL FlaznorpCTR	Kanon Sawashiroavg 30.7¢	$662.99	$507.12	-$155.88	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1CTR	Kanon Sawashiroavg 23.8¢	$227.76	$364.36	+$136.6	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Kanon Sawashiroavg 26.5¢	$230.28	$308.81	+$78.53	48% 465-495 (960)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kanon Sawashiroavg 24.5¢	$128.63	$144.03	+$63.88	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
poshposh	Heather Watsonavg 62.6¢	$138.4	$136.99	-$1.42	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 20.7¢	$30.87	$56.59	+$25.72	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 8¢	$1	$0.88	-$0.12	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Heather Watson

Invested

$1,499.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$263.79

Record

44%

119-151 (270)

NotJumpARB<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

Both legs:

Heather Watson$52550¢+$126

Kanon Sawashiro$52550¢-$126

FlaznorpCTR

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$662.99

Value

$507.12

PnL

-$155.88

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1CTR

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$227.76

Value

$364.36

PnL

+$136.6

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$230.28

Value

$308.81

PnL

+$78.53

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

38791873984189CTR

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$128.63

Value

$144.03

PnL

+$63.88

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

poshposh

Heather Watson

Invested

$138.4

Value

$136.99

PnL

-$1.42

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$30.87

Value

$56.59

PnL

+$25.72

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

NeutralHeather Watson at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heather Watson

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Heather Watson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeather Watson 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKanon Sawashiro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kanon Sawashiro 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heather Watson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.