W35 Hamamatsu: Kanon Sawashiro vs Nagisa Suzuki

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kanon Sawashiro (55%) · Kanon Sawashiro at 100¢ · $884 held · ends Nov 11

Kanon Sawashiro>99¢Nagisa Suzuki<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kanon Sawashiro

Consensus Traders

Kanon Sawashiro 55%

Total Value

$884.46

Combined PnL

-$355.82

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKanon Sawashiro at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kanon Sawashiro

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kanon Sawashiro100%

Nagisa Suzuki0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kanon Sawashiro6 traders

Total Value$807.13

Total Shares1,491

Combined PnL-$155.48

Nagisa Suzuki5 traders

Total Value$77.32

Total Shares898

Combined PnL-$200.34

Kanon Sawashiro — 55%Nagisa Suzuki — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Kanon Sawashiro. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKanon Sawashiro 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNagisa Suzuki 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKanon Sawashiro 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Kanon Sawashiro 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Kanon Sawashiroavg 71.3¢	$740.93	$561.22	-$122.09	50% 520-518 (1038)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Kanon Sawashiroavg 65.9¢	$139.47	$114.26	-$25.21	59% 31503-22172 (53675)
IW iWasEnough	Kanon Sawashiroavg 65.2¢	$137.68	$114.08	-$13.26	51% 11725-11123 (22848)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nagisa Suzukiavg 36.6¢	$183.64	$62.02	-$103.87	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 40¢	$5.6	$6.86	+$1.26	48% 5221-5727 (10948)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nagisa Suzukiavg 29.1¢	$3.83	$6.72	+$2.89	46% 1366-1590 (2956)
LR lryyy<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 54¢	$3.83	$6.7	+$2.87	47% 9121-10246 (19367)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nagisa Suzukiavg 23.7¢	$101.98	$4.23	-$97.75	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kanon Sawashiroavg 41.2¢	$3.07	$4.02	+$0.95	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Nagisa Suzukiavg 63.2¢	$3.16	$2.55	-$0.61	82% 6910-1490 (8400)
poshposhCTR<$100	Nagisa Suzukiavg 3.2¢	$2.8	$1.81	-$0.99	57% 12069-9156 (21225)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$740.93

Value

$561.22

PnL

-$122.09

Record

50%

520-518 (1038)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$139.47

Value

$114.26

PnL

-$25.21

Record

59%

31503-22172 (53675)

iWasEnough

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$137.68

Value

$114.08

PnL

-$13.26

Record

51%

11725-11123 (22848)

38791873984189CTR

Nagisa Suzuki

Invested

$183.64

Value

$62.02

PnL

-$103.87

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

SlickRick123<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

5221-5727 (10948)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nagisa Suzuki

Invested

$3.83

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$2.89

Record

46%

1366-1590 (2956)

lryyy<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$3.83

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$2.87

Record

47%

9121-10246 (19367)

FlaznorpCTR

Nagisa Suzuki

Invested

$101.98

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$97.75

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kanon Sawashiro

Invested

$3.07

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Nagisa Suzuki

Invested

$3.16

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.61

Record

82%

6910-1490 (8400)

poshposhCTR<$100

Nagisa Suzuki

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.99

Record

57%

12069-9156 (21225)

Research grade

NeutralKanon Sawashiro at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kanon Sawashiro

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Kanon Sawashiro. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKanon Sawashiro 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNagisa Suzuki 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKanon Sawashiro 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Kanon Sawashiro 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kanon Sawashiro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.