Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Allegra Korpanec Davies, while the market favors Jana Hossam Salah (93%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Weston, FL: Jana Hossam Salah vs Allegra Korpanec Davies

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Allegra Korpanec Davies (67%) · Allegra Korpanec Davies at 7.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Jana Hossam Salah93¢Allegra Korpanec Davies7¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Consensus Traders

Allegra Korpanec Davies 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$50.36

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 7.5¢

-85% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAllegra Korpanec Davies at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Allegra Korpanec Davies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Jana Hossam Salah 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jana Hossam Salah93%

Allegra Korpanec Davies8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Allegra Korpanec Davies6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,134

Combined PnL-$6.19

Jana Hossam Salah3 traders

Total Value$155.44

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$56.55

Allegra Korpanec Davies — 67%Jana Hossam Salah — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Allegra Korpanec Davies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jana Hossam Salah) and the top 1000 (9 on Allegra Korpanec Davies) disagree here.

ctrAllegra Korpanec Davies 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJana Hossam Salah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Allegra Korpanec Davies 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21	54% 475-399 (874)
dips.	Jana Hossam Salahavg 52¢	$64.48	$114.08	+$49.6	45% 544-659 (1203)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 10¢	$81.87	$93.21	+$11.34	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Allegra Korpanec Davies leg	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 10¢	$54.89	$63.12	+$8.23
└ Jana Hossam Salah leg	Jana Hossam Salahavg 79.4¢	$26.98	$30.09	+$3.11
RN1<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 83¢	$24.41	$26.03	+$1.62	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 60¢	$10	$15.33	+$5.33	44% 102-128 (230)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 45.1¢	$12.42	$2.76	-$9.66	32% 542-1134 (1676)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 46¢	$11.7	$2.54	-$9.15	33% 539-1116 (1655)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 40¢	$8.48	$2.12	-$6.36	34% 564-1116 (1680)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.58	-$0.53	50% 143-143 (286)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Allegra Korpanec Daviesavg 39¢	$2	$0.51	-$1.49	33% 556-1141 (1697)

NotJumpCTR

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

dips.

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$64.48

Value

$114.08

PnL

+$49.6

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$81.87

Value

$93.21

PnL

+$11.34

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Allegra Korpanec Davies$54.8910¢+$8.23

Jana Hossam Salah$26.9879.4¢+$3.11

RN1<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$24.41

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$1.62

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

glennyorkshire<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$10

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$5.33

Record

44%

102-128 (230)

VenusianCTR<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$12.42

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$9.66

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

LimousinCTR<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$11.7

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$9.15

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$8.48

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$6.36

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.53

Record

50%

143-143 (286)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Allegra Korpanec Davies

Invested

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$1.49

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

Research grade

AvoidAllegra Korpanec Davies at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Allegra Korpanec Davies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Jana Hossam Salah 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Allegra Korpanec Davies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jana Hossam Salah) and the top 1000 (9 on Allegra Korpanec Davies) disagree here.

ctrAllegra Korpanec Davies 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJana Hossam Salah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Allegra Korpanec Davies 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Allegra Korpanec Davies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.