Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sapfo Sakellaridi, while the market favors Anja Stankovic (66%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Heraklion: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Anja Stankovic

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sapfo Sakellaridi (50%) · Sapfo Sakellaridi at 34¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 17

Sapfo Sakellaridi34¢Anja Stankovic66¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Consensus Traders

Sapfo Sakellaridi 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$505.78

Combined PnL

$17.81

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 34¢

-58% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSapfo Sakellaridi at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sapfo Sakellaridi

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Anja Stankovic 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sapfo Sakellaridi34%

Anja Stankovic66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sapfo Sakellaridi3 traders

Total Value$241.62

Total Shares333

Combined PnL-$30.6

Anja Stankovic3 traders

Total Value$103.64

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$48.41

Sapfo Sakellaridi — 50%Anja Stankovic — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 71.3¢	$129.78	$160.52	+$30.73	47% 781-864 (1645)
└ Anja Stankovic leg	Anja Stankovicavg 13.5¢	$22.11	$118.25	+$96.13
└ Sapfo Sakellaridi leg	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 71.3¢	$107.67	$42.27	-$65.4
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 86.5¢	$226.61	$129.67	-$96.94	35% 176-320 (496)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 87¢	$34.11	$98.79	+$64.68	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Anja Stankovicavg 35¢	$35	$72	+$37	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Anja Stankovicavg 36.2¢	$12.3	$24.48	+$12.18	23% 87-297 (384)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 43.7¢	$27.93	$13.16	+$1.66	17% 66-333 (399)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Anja Stankovicavg 71¢	$7.93	$7.16	-$0.77	53% 57-50 (107)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$129.78

Value

$160.52

PnL

+$30.73

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

Both legs:

Anja Stankovic$22.1113.5¢+$96.13

Sapfo Sakellaridi$107.6771.3¢-$65.4

omnibus-076daaCTR

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$226.61

Value

$129.67

PnL

-$96.94

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$34.11

Value

$98.79

PnL

+$64.68

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Anja Stankovic

Invested

$35

Value

$72

PnL

+$37

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Anja Stankovic

Invested

$12.3

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$12.18

Record

23%

87-297 (384)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$27.93

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$1.66

Record

17%

66-333 (399)

Eulhunter<$100

Anja Stankovic

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

57-50 (107)

Research grade

NeutralSapfo Sakellaridi at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sapfo Sakellaridi

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Anja Stankovic 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sapfo Sakellaridi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.