W75 Brisbane: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alana Subasic

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Himeno Sakatsume (20%) · Himeno Sakatsume at 98¢ · $383 held · ends Nov 17

Himeno Sakatsume98¢Alana Subasic2¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Himeno Sakatsume

Consensus Traders

Himeno Sakatsume 20%

Total Value

$383.11

Combined PnL

-$11.53

Research grade

NeutralHimeno Sakatsume at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Himeno Sakatsume

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Himeno Sakatsume98%

Alana Subasic2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Himeno Sakatsume1 trader

Total Value$358.65

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$10.35

Alana Subasic4 traders

Total Value$24.46

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$1.18

Himeno Sakatsume — 20%Alana Subasic — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Himeno Sakatsumeavg 95.4¢	$385.16	$358.65	-$10.35	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
RN1CTR<$100	Alana Subasicavg 4.4¢	$13.64	$12.48	-$1.16	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Alana Subasicavg 5.8¢	$7.87	$6.13	-$1.74	48% 603-645 (1248)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Alana Subasicavg 5¢	$2	$3.6	+$1.6	46% 73-85 (158)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alana Subasicavg 6¢	$1.5	$2.25	+$0.13	47% 329-371 (700)

Flaznorp

Himeno Sakatsume

Invested

$385.16

Value

$358.65

PnL

-$10.35

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

RN1CTR<$100

Alana Subasic

Invested

$13.64

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$1.16

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Alana Subasic

Invested

$7.87

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$1.74

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Alana Subasic

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

46%

73-85 (158)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alana Subasic

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

Research grade

NeutralHimeno Sakatsume at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Himeno Sakatsume

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Himeno Sakatsume wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.