W50 Yokohama: Rina Saigo vs JiaYi Wang

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rina Saigo (50%) · Rina Saigo at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Rina Saigo>99¢JiaYi Wang<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rina Saigo

Consensus Traders

Rina Saigo 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$40.74

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 99.5¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRina Saigo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rina Saigo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rina Saigo100%

JiaYi Wang1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rina Saigo4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL-$95.35

JiaYi Wang4 traders

Total Value$274.51

Total Shares1,352

Combined PnL+$136.09

Rina Saigo — 50%JiaYi Wang — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Rina Saigoavg 81.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$49.16	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
38 38791873984189	Rina Saigoavg 69.4¢	$511.74	$363.07	-$144.67	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
CI cigarettesCTR	JiaYi Wangavg 25¢	$125	$265	+$140	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Rina Saigoavg 99.9¢	$108.54	$108.16	-$0.38	41% 3094-4461 (7555)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rina Saigoavg 94¢	$49.99	$50.52	+$0.53	27% 165-457 (622)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 1.2¢	$10.02	$4.21	-$5.81	26% 131-365 (496)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 19¢	$0.95	$2.65	+$1.7	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.65	+$0.2	30% 326-779 (1105)

RN1

Rina Saigo

Invested

$1,269.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$49.16

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

38791873984189

Rina Saigo

Invested

$511.74

Value

$363.07

PnL

-$144.67

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

cigarettesCTR

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$125

Value

$265

PnL

+$140

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

xtxpleasecallme

Rina Saigo

Invested

$108.54

Value

$108.16

PnL

-$0.38

Record

41%

3094-4461 (7555)

pauleta23<$100

Rina Saigo

Invested

$49.99

Value

$50.52

PnL

+$0.53

Record

27%

165-457 (622)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$10.02

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$5.81

Record

26%

131-365 (496)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$0.95

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

326-779 (1105)

Research grade

NeutralRina Saigo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rina Saigo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rina Saigo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.