W35 Weston, FL: Anita Sahdiieva vs Capucine Jauffret

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Anita Sahdiieva (63%) · Anita Sahdiieva at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Anita Sahdiieva79¢Capucine Jauffret21¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anita Sahdiieva

Consensus Traders

Anita Sahdiieva 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$239.42

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 78.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnita Sahdiieva at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anita Sahdiieva

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Anita Sahdiieva79%

Capucine Jauffret22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anita Sahdiieva5 traders

Total Value$604.41

Total Shares810

Combined PnL+$210.14

Capucine Jauffret3 traders

Total Value$58.44

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$29.28

Anita Sahdiieva — 63%Capucine Jauffret — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Anita Sahdiieva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAnita Sahdiieva 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Anita Sahdiieva 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Capucine Jauffretavg 50¢	$1.1K	$934.5	-$115.5	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Anita Sahdiieva leg	Anita Sahdiievaavg 50¢	$525	$745.5	+$220.5
└ Capucine Jauffret leg	Capucine Jauffretavg 50¢	$525	$189	-$336
RN1ARB<$100	Anita Sahdiievaavg 57.8¢	$593.79	$633.46	+$39.67	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
└ Anita Sahdiieva leg	Anita Sahdiievaavg 57.8¢	$319.58	$392.81	+$73.23
└ Capucine Jauffret leg	Capucine Jauffretavg 33¢	$274.21	$240.65	-$33.56
FL Flaznorp	Anita Sahdiievaavg 41.8¢	$115.06	$216.06	+$101	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
OM omnibus-076daa	Anita Sahdiievaavg 70.1¢	$199.9	$196.34	-$3.56	42% 291-405 (696)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Anita Sahdiievaavg 60¢	$606.33	$155.47	+$94.14	48% 342-378 (720)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Capucine Jauffretavg 27¢	$37.44	$40.22	+$2.77	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
LI LightParadox<$100	Anita Sahdiievaavg 34¢	$13.36	$27.9	+$14.54	33% 553-1135 (1688)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Capucine Jauffretavg 23.6¢	$98.38	$17.32	+$28.56	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Anita Sahdiievaavg 42¢	$4.62	$8.64	+$4.02	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Capucine Jauffretavg 59¢	$2.95	$0.9	-$2.05	50% 141-139 (280)

NotJumpARB<$100

Capucine Jauffret

Invested

$1,050

Value

$934.5

PnL

-$115.5

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Anita Sahdiieva$52550¢+$220.5

Capucine Jauffret$52550¢-$336

RN1ARB<$100

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$593.79

Value

$633.46

PnL

+$39.67

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

Both legs:

Anita Sahdiieva$319.5857.8¢+$73.23

Capucine Jauffret$274.2133¢-$33.56

Flaznorp

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$115.06

Value

$216.06

PnL

+$101

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

omnibus-076daa

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$199.9

Value

$196.34

PnL

-$3.56

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

CandleHammerDrums

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$606.33

Value

$155.47

PnL

+$94.14

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Capucine Jauffret

Invested

$37.44

Value

$40.22

PnL

+$2.77

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

LightParadox<$100

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$13.36

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$14.54

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Capucine Jauffret

Invested

$98.38

Value

$17.32

PnL

+$28.56

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ferdinand2<$100

Anita Sahdiieva

Invested

$4.62

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$4.02

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Capucine Jauffret

Invested

$2.95

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$2.05

Record

50%

141-139 (280)

Research grade

NeutralAnita Sahdiieva at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anita Sahdiieva

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Anita Sahdiieva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAnita Sahdiieva 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Anita Sahdiieva 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anita Sahdiieva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.