M15 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Carles Rojas vs Alessandro Del Francia

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Carles Rojas (50%) · Carles Rojas at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Carles Rojas98¢Alessandro Del Francia2¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carles Rojas

Consensus Traders

Carles Rojas 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$34.56

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 97.7¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarles Rojas at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carles Rojas

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carles Rojas98%

Alessandro Del Francia2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carles Rojas3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,504

Combined PnL+$8.42

Alessandro Del Francia3 traders

Total Value$114.29

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL+$26.14

Carles Rojas — 50%Alessandro Del Francia — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Carles Rojasavg 94.1¢	$757.56	$760.38	+$5.28	48% 752-814 (1566)
dips.	Carles Rojasavg 96.5¢	$566.5	$566.3	-$0.2	42% 189-263 (452)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Carles Rojasavg 95¢	$120	$123.35	+$3.35	10% 39-370 (409)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Alessandro Del Franciaavg 5¢	$32.58	$65.17	+$32.58	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Alessandro Del Franciaavg 5¢	$14	$28.01	+$14	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Alessandro Del Franciaavg 4.6¢	$41.56	$21.12	-$20.44	22% 81-290 (371)

38791873984189

Carles Rojas

Invested

$757.56

Value

$760.38

PnL

+$5.28

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

dips.

Carles Rojas

Invested

$566.5

Value

$566.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

42%

189-263 (452)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Carles Rojas

Invested

$120

Value

$123.35

PnL

+$3.35

Record

10%

39-370 (409)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Alessandro Del Francia

Invested

$32.58

Value

$65.17

PnL

+$32.58

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Alessandro Del Francia

Invested

$14

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$14

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Alessandro Del Francia

Invested

$41.56

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$20.44

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

Research grade

NeutralCarles Rojas at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Carles Rojas

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carles Rojas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.