W50 Chihuahua: Victoria Rodriguez vs Vivian Wolff
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vivian Wolff (50%) · Vivian Wolff at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Vivian Wolff
4
Vivian Wolff 50%
3 arb excluded
$1.0K
$7.91
67¢ → 57.3¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVivian Wolff at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Vivian Wolff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Vivian Wolffavg 66.2¢ | $461.18 | $438.95 | -$22.24 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
| └ Vivian Wolff leg | Vivian Wolffavg 66.2¢ | $355.8 | $324.36 | -$31.44 | |
| └ Victoria Rodriguez leg | Victoria Rodriguezavg 36.5¢ | $105.39 | $114.59 | +$9.2 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Vivian Wolffavg 66.4¢ | $296.25 | $303.29 | +$7.04 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Victoria Rodriguez leg | Victoria Rodriguezavg 34.4¢ | $124.94 | $156.48 | +$31.54 | |
| └ Vivian Wolff leg | Vivian Wolffavg 66.4¢ | $171.31 | $146.81 | -$24.5 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Vivian Wolffavg 74¢ | $124.32 | $109.49 | -$14.83 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
| └ Vivian Wolff leg | Vivian Wolffavg 74¢ | $102.12 | $87.56 | -$14.56 | |
| └ Victoria Rodriguez leg | Victoria Rodriguezavg 37¢ | $22.2 | $21.93 | -$0.27 | |
TH thestingsnake | Vivian Wolffavg 66.2¢ | $107.65 | $84.61 | -$13.59 | 27% 144-385 (529) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Vivian Wolffavg 70¢ | $35.64 | $36.93 | +$1.29 | 49% 118-121 (239) |
7C 0x7c1e...bab3CTR<$100 | Victoria Rodriguezavg 1.1¢ | $2.77 | $23.96 | +$21.19 | — |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Victoria Rodriguezavg 33.3¢ | $9.86 | $8.88 | -$0.98 | 25% 117-356 (473) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$461.18
Value
$438.95
PnL
-$22.24
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.25
Value
$303.29
PnL
+$7.04
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.32
Value
$109.49
PnL
-$14.83
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.65
Value
$84.61
PnL
-$13.59
Record
27%
144-385 (529)
Invested
$35.64
Value
$36.93
PnL
+$1.29
Record
49%
118-121 (239)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$23.96
PnL
+$21.19
Record
—
Invested
$9.86
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$0.98
Record
25%
117-356 (473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.