W35 Weston, FL: Sofia Rocchetti vs Anita Sahdiieva
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anita Sahdiieva (40%) · Anita Sahdiieva at 88¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Anita Sahdiieva
5
Anita Sahdiieva 40%
$268.26
$31.65
75.2¢ → 87.5¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnita Sahdiieva at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Anita Sahdiievaavg 80¢ | $115.1 | $128.76 | +$13.66 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
38 38791873984189 | Anita Sahdiievaavg 70¢ | $95.81 | $109.99 | +$14.17 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sofia Rocchettiavg 10.1¢ | $18.18 | $20.33 | +$2.15 | 57% 4029-3048 (7077) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Sofia Rocchettiavg 47.3¢ | $7.1 | $8.1 | +$1 | 49% 102-106 (208) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sofia Rocchettiavg 21¢ | $0.42 | $1.08 | +$0.66 | 53% 1811-1620 (3431) |
Invested
$115.1
Value
$128.76
PnL
+$13.66
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$95.81
Value
$109.99
PnL
+$14.17
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$18.18
Value
$20.33
PnL
+$2.15
Record
57%
4029-3048 (7077)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
102-106 (208)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.66
Record
53%
1811-1620 (3431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.