M15 Heraklion: Matias Reyniak vs Matthew Thomson
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matias Reyniak (60%) · Matias Reyniak at 78¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Matias Reyniak
5
Matias Reyniak 60%
$233.62
-$10.26
61.2¢ → 77.5¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatias Reyniak at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Matias Reyniakavg 60.6¢ | $88.8 | $94.54 | +$5.74 | 34% 163-316 (479) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Matthew Thomsonavg 41.5¢ | $63.08 | $53.96 | -$9.12 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Matthew Thomsonavg 41¢ | $57.41 | $49.71 | -$7.7 | 54% 1605-1351 (2956) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Matias Reyniakavg 63¢ | $31.44 | $32.19 | +$0.75 | 50% 1383-1403 (2786) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Matias Reyniakavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.23 | +$0.08 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$88.8
Value
$94.54
PnL
+$5.74
Record
34%
163-316 (479)
Invested
$63.08
Value
$53.96
PnL
-$9.12
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
Invested
$57.41
Value
$49.71
PnL
-$7.7
Record
54%
1605-1351 (2956)
Invested
$31.44
Value
$32.19
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
1383-1403 (2786)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.