W35 Malta: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Maryia Magro

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maryia Magro (80%) · Maryia Magro at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Ana Giraldi Requena<1¢Maryia Magro>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maryia Magro

Consensus Traders

Maryia Magro 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

26.1¢ → 100¢

+282% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaryia Magro at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maryia Magro

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ana Giraldi Requena0%

Maryia Magro100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryia Magro4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,194

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Ana Giraldi Requena1 trader

Total Value$3.8

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.95

Maryia Magro — 80%Ana Giraldi Requena — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295ARB<$100	Ana Giraldi Requenaavg 71.6¢	$4.1K	$2.9K	-$23.13	67% 210-103 (313)
└ Ana Giraldi Requena leg	Ana Giraldi Requenaavg 71.6¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$543.88
└ Maryia Magro leg	Maryia Magroavg 12.2¢	$217.85	$738.59	+$520.75
poshposh	Maryia Magroavg 25.8¢	$524.74	$2.0K	+$1.5K	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Maryia Magroavg 87.2¢	$27.89	$23.28	-$4.61	95% 22892-1151 (24043)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Maryia Magroavg 15.3¢	$18.84	$18.09	-$0.75	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Ana Giraldi Requenaavg 95¢	$4.75	$3.8	-$0.95	36% 14865-26983 (41848)
PA pauleta23<$100	Maryia Magroavg 51¢	$1.95	$0.98	-$0.97	67% 23108-11512 (34620)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295ARB<$100

Ana Giraldi Requena

Invested

$4,092.8

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$23.13

Record

67%

210-103 (313)

Both legs:

Ana Giraldi Requena$2,635.0171.6¢-$543.88

Maryia Magro$217.8512.2¢+$520.75

poshposh

Maryia Magro

Invested

$524.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Maryia Magro

Invested

$27.89

Value

$23.28

PnL

-$4.61

Record

95%

22892-1151 (24043)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Maryia Magro

Invested

$18.84

Value

$18.09

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Ana Giraldi Requena

Invested

$4.75

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.95

Record

36%

14865-26983 (41848)

pauleta23<$100

Maryia Magro

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.97

Record

67%

23108-11512 (34620)

Research grade

NeutralMaryia Magro at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Maryia Magro

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maryia Magro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.