W35 Orlando, FL: Merna Refaat vs Edda Mamedova

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Edda Mamedova (38%) · Edda Mamedova at 100¢ · $891 held · ends Nov 11

Merna Refaat<1¢Edda Mamedova>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Edda Mamedova

Consensus Traders

Edda Mamedova 38%

Total Value

$891.39

Combined PnL

-$30.21

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEdda Mamedova at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Edda Mamedova

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Merna Refaat0%

Edda Mamedova100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edda Mamedova5 traders

Total Value$606.5

Total Shares830

Combined PnL+$16.13

Merna Refaat8 traders

Total Value$284.89

Total Shares693

Combined PnL-$46.34

Edda Mamedova — 38%Merna Refaat — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Edda Mamedovaavg 71¢	$355.96	$345.69	-$10.27	46% 1395-1652 (3047)
38 38791873984189CTR	Merna Refaatavg 30.9¢	$212.65	$182.39	-$28.78	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
TH thestingsnake	Edda Mamedovaavg 77.1¢	$117.13	$130.72	+$13.59	60% 4352-2914 (7266)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Edda Mamedovaavg 77.3¢	$73.38	$75.04	+$1.66	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Edda Mamedovaavg 52.9¢	$42.62	$53.6	+$10.98	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 48.2¢	$64.93	$52.48	-$12.44	53% 3366-2947 (6313)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 44.2¢	$17.69	$15.6	-$2.09	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 18.6¢	$12.46	$12.03	-$0.43	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 39.5¢	$11.97	$11.82	-$0.15	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 36¢	$9.3	$7.1	-$2.2	54% 6181-5226 (11407)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 45.2¢	$2.49	$2.15	-$0.34	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
CI cigarettes<$100	Edda Mamedovaavg 77¢	$1.29	$1.45	+$0.17	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
poshposhCTR<$100	Merna Refaatavg 36¢	$1.22	$1.32	+$0.1	57% 12279-9333 (21612)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Edda Mamedova

Invested

$355.96

Value

$345.69

PnL

-$10.27

Record

46%

1395-1652 (3047)

38791873984189CTR

Merna Refaat

Invested

$212.65

Value

$182.39

PnL

-$28.78

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

thestingsnake

Edda Mamedova

Invested

$117.13

Value

$130.72

PnL

+$13.59

Record

60%

4352-2914 (7266)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Edda Mamedova

Invested

$73.38

Value

$75.04

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Flaznorp<$100

Edda Mamedova

Invested

$42.62

Value

$53.6

PnL

+$10.98

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$64.93

Value

$52.48

PnL

-$12.44

Record

53%

3366-2947 (6313)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$17.69

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$2.09

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$12.46

Value

$12.03

PnL

-$0.43

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$11.97

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$9.3

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$2.2

Record

54%

6181-5226 (11407)

LimousinCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

cigarettes<$100

Edda Mamedova

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

poshposhCTR<$100

Merna Refaat

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

Research grade

NeutralEdda Mamedova at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Edda Mamedova

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Edda Mamedova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.