W50 Chihuahua: Malaika Rapolu vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (43%) · Jessica Hinojosa Gomez at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19

Malaika Rapolu<1¢Jessica Hinojosa Gomez>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Consensus Traders

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$461.62

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJessica Hinojosa Gomez at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Malaika Rapolu0%

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,209

Combined PnL+$135.77

Malaika Rapolu8 traders

Total Value$260.45

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL-$597.39

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez — 43%Malaika Rapolu — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 67.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.4	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	54% 506-431 (937)
└ Malaika Rapolu leg	Malaika Rapoluavg 50¢	$525	$745.5	+$220.5
└ Jessica Hinojosa Gomez leg	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 50¢	$525	$294	-$231
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 92.9¢	$656.43	$706	+$49.57	98% 272-5 (277)
SM smithagent	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 68¢	$183.44	$264.57	+$81.13	43% 391-518 (909)
TH thestingsnake	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 68.9¢	$243.67	$233.58	+$6.07	31% 182-405 (587)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Malaika Rapoluavg 55.2¢	$126.98	$134.91	+$7.93	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
poshposhCTR<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 89¢	$73.22	$58.41	-$14.81	48% 621-673 (1294)
dips.<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 68¢	$40.81	$55.11	+$14.3	46% 580-694 (1274)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 66.5¢	$45.96	$42.68	-$3.27	50% 146-148 (294)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 9¢	$9.49	$12.08	+$2.59	36% 558-990 (1548)
machinelearned<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 57¢	$11.4	$11.5	+$0.1	43% 739-963 (1702)
38 38791873984189CTR	Malaika Rapoluavg 90.4¢	$332.4	$7.6	-$48.61	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 8¢	$8	$4	-$4	29% 218-522 (740)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Malaika Rapoluavg 47.6¢	$537.68	$0.56	-$537.12	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Malaika Rapoluavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.2	-$0.1	44% 442-557 (999)

RN1

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$1,475.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.4

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

NotJumpARB<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

506-431 (937)

Both legs:

Malaika Rapolu$52550¢+$220.5

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez$52550¢-$231

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$656.43

Value

$706

PnL

+$49.57

Record

98%

272-5 (277)

smithagent

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$183.44

Value

$264.57

PnL

+$81.13

Record

43%

391-518 (909)

thestingsnake

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$243.67

Value

$233.58

PnL

+$6.07

Record

31%

182-405 (587)

FlaznorpCTR

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$126.98

Value

$134.91

PnL

+$7.93

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

poshposhCTR<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$73.22

Value

$58.41

PnL

-$14.81

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

dips.<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$40.81

Value

$55.11

PnL

+$14.3

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$45.96

Value

$42.68

PnL

-$3.27

Record

50%

146-148 (294)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$9.49

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$2.59

Record

36%

558-990 (1548)

machinelearned<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

739-963 (1702)

38791873984189CTR

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$332.4

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$48.61

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

Value

PnL

-$4

Record

29%

218-522 (740)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$537.68

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$537.12

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

lryyyCTR<$100

Malaika Rapolu

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

442-557 (999)

Research grade

NeutralJessica Hinojosa Gomez at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jessica Hinojosa Gomez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.