Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raffaele Ciurnelli, while the market favors Alex Marti Pujolras (80%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Alex Marti Pujolras vs Raffaele Ciurnelli

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raffaele Ciurnelli (83%) · Raffaele Ciurnelli at 21¢ · $700 held · ends Nov 21

Alex Marti Pujolras80¢Raffaele Ciurnelli20¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Consensus Traders

Raffaele Ciurnelli 83%

Total Value

$699.85

Combined PnL

$250.2

Smart Money Entry

18.3¢ → 20.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaffaele Ciurnelli at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raffaele Ciurnelli

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Marti Pujolras 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alex Marti Pujolras80%

Raffaele Ciurnelli21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raffaele Ciurnelli5 traders

Total Value$690.27

Total Shares2,399

Combined PnL+$250.27

Alex Marti Pujolras1 trader

Total Value$9.58

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.07

Raffaele Ciurnelli — 83%Alex Marti Pujolras — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Raffaele Ciurnelliavg 18.2¢	$235.14	$381.14	+$146	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Raffaele Ciurnelliavg 18.5¢	$106.1	$168.97	+$62.87	48% 509-543 (1052)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Raffaele Ciurnelliavg 18¢	$41.4	$67.85	+$26.45	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Raffaele Ciurnelliavg 19¢	$26.2	$40.69	+$14.48	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Raffaele Ciurnelliavg 18.7¢	$31.16	$31.63	+$0.47	48% 3196-3499 (6695)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Alex Marti Pujolrasavg 71¢	$9.65	$9.58	-$0.07	45% 158-194 (352)

RN1CTR

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Invested

$235.14

Value

$381.14

PnL

+$146

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Invested

$106.1

Value

$168.97

PnL

+$62.87

Record

48%

509-543 (1052)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Invested

$41.4

Value

$67.85

PnL

+$26.45

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Invested

$26.2

Value

$40.69

PnL

+$14.48

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Raffaele Ciurnelli

Invested

$31.16

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

3196-3499 (6695)

glennyorkshire<$100

Alex Marti Pujolras

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

158-194 (352)

Research grade

AvoidRaffaele Ciurnelli at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Raffaele Ciurnelli

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Marti Pujolras 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raffaele Ciurnelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.