W35 Weston, FL: Dasha Plekhanova vs Salma Djoubri

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Salma Djoubri (80%) · Salma Djoubri at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Dasha Plekhanova11¢Salma Djoubri89¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Salma Djoubri

Consensus Traders

Salma Djoubri 80%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$298.41

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 89.5¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSalma Djoubri at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Salma Djoubri

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dasha Plekhanova11%

Salma Djoubri90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dasha Plekhanova2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$124.43

Salma Djoubri8 traders

Total Value$970.37

Total Shares1,016

Combined PnL+$173.97

Dasha Plekhanova — 20%Salma Djoubri — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Salma Djoubri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDasha Plekhanova 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSalma Djoubri 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Salma Djoubri 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$126	54% 455-382 (837)
FL Flaznorp	Salma Djoubriavg 80¢	$411.36	$493.6	+$82.24	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
RN1	Salma Djoubriavg 80¢	$197.6	$237.12	+$39.52	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Salma Djoubriavg 79¢	$99.8	$121.28	+$21.48	48% 342-378 (720)
38 38791873984189<$100	Salma Djoubriavg 67.5¢	$54.36	$52.29	+$19.02	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Salma Djoubriavg 83¢	$28.02	$27.68	-$0.34	42% 291-405 (696)
PA Pan9X<$100	Salma Djoubriavg 55¢	$13.75	$24	+$10.25	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Salma Djoubriavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.6	+$0.3	30% 173-399 (572)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Salma Djoubriavg 66¢	$3.3	$4.8	+$1.5	41% 257-370 (627)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 46¢	$2.4	$0.83	-$1.57	32% 538-1128 (1666)

NotJumpCTR

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$126

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Flaznorp

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$411.36

Value

$493.6

PnL

+$82.24

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

RN1

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$197.6

Value

$237.12

PnL

+$39.52

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

CandleHammerDrums

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$99.8

Value

$121.28

PnL

+$21.48

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

38791873984189<$100

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$54.36

Value

$52.29

PnL

+$19.02

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$28.02

Value

$27.68

PnL

-$0.34

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

Pan9X<$100

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$13.75

Value

$24

PnL

+$10.25

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

thestingsnake<$100

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

30%

173-399 (572)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Salma Djoubri

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

VenusianCTR<$100

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$1.57

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

Research grade

NeutralSalma Djoubri at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Salma Djoubri

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Salma Djoubri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDasha Plekhanova 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSalma Djoubri 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Salma Djoubri 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Salma Djoubri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.