M25 Valencia: Samuele Pieri vs Sergio Planella Hernandez
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Samuele Pieri (78%) · Samuele Pieri at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Samuele Pieri
9
Samuele Pieri 78%
$2.9K
-$886.07
83.8¢ → 75.5¢
-10% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralSamuele Pieri at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Samuele Pieriavg 85.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.2K | -$620.62 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
 RN1 | Samuele Pieriavg 81.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$155.35 | 53% 60020-52387 (112407) |
 poshposh | Samuele Pieriavg 85.3¢ | $291.56 | $299.12 | +$7.57 | 57% 12169-9271 (21440) |
38 38791873984189 | Samuele Pieriavg 81.9¢ | $242.05 | $216.66 | -$25.39 | 48% 58721-62631 (121352) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Samuele Pieriavg 86¢ | $75.68 | $77 | +$1.32 | 47% 9165-10272 (19437) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Sergio Planella Hernandezavg 43.2¢ | $128.78 | $37.25 | -$91.53 | 53% 3357-2940 (6297) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Samuele Pieriavg 62.7¢ | $19.4 | $19.38 | -$0.02 | 46% 1376-1620 (2996) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Samuele Pieriavg 45¢ | $0.98 | $1.02 | +$0.04 | 47% 10953-12334 (23287) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Sergio Planella Hernandezavg 54.2¢ | $2.71 | $0.63 | -$2.09 | 82% 6948-1498 (8446) |
Invested
$1,824.38
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$620.62
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
RN1Invested
$1,241.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$155.35
Record
53%
60020-52387 (112407)
poshposhInvested
$291.56
Value
$299.12
PnL
+$7.57
Record
57%
12169-9271 (21440)
Invested
$242.05
Value
$216.66
PnL
-$25.39
Record
48%
58721-62631 (121352)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$77
PnL
+$1.32
Record
47%
9165-10272 (19437)
Invested
$128.78
Value
$37.25
PnL
-$91.53
Record
53%
3357-2940 (6297)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
46%
1376-1620 (2996)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.04
Record
47%
10953-12334 (23287)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$2.09
Record
82%
6948-1498 (8446)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Samuele Pieri — $1.2K
RN1
Samuele Pieri — $1.1K
poshposh
Samuele Pieri — $299.12
38791873984189
Samuele Pieri — $216.66
lryyy
Samuele Pieri — $77
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
CTRSergio Planella Hernandez — $37.25
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Samuele Pieri — $19.38
topdogbigboi
Samuele Pieri — $1.02
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRSergio Planella Hernandez — $0.63