M25 Columbus, OH: Denis Petak vs Matthew Forbes
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew Forbes (63%) · Matthew Forbes at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Matthew Forbes
8
Matthew Forbes 63%
$2.9K
$279.19
73¢ → 97.5¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatthew Forbes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpCTR | Denis Petakavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$158.55 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
FL Flaznorp | Matthew Forbesavg 87.2¢ | $708.04 | $803.47 | +$95.42 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
 RN1 | Matthew Forbesavg 53.6¢ | $226.76 | $305.78 | +$79.02 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
38 38791873984189 | Matthew Forbesavg 63.3¢ | $223.4 | $249.48 | +$110.63 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Matthew Forbesavg 48¢ | $66.57 | $131.76 | +$65.18 | 51% 2075-1993 (4068) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Denis Petakavg 30¢ | $169.8 | $113.77 | -$56.03 | 46% 89-104 (193) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Denis Petakavg 51.6¢ | $284.45 | $110.89 | -$173.56 | 42% 291-405 (696) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Matthew Forbesavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.73 | -$0.03 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$158.55
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Invested
$708.04
Value
$803.47
PnL
+$95.42
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
RN1Invested
$226.76
Value
$305.78
PnL
+$79.02
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$223.4
Value
$249.48
PnL
+$110.63
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$66.57
Value
$131.76
PnL
+$65.18
Record
51%
2075-1993 (4068)
Invested
$169.8
Value
$113.77
PnL
-$56.03
Record
46%
89-104 (193)
Invested
$284.45
Value
$110.89
PnL
-$173.56
Record
42%
291-405 (696)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
NotJump
CTRDenis Petak — $1.2K
Flaznorp
Matthew Forbes — $803.47
RN1
Matthew Forbes — $305.78
38791873984189
Matthew Forbes — $249.48
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Matthew Forbes — $131.76
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
CTRDenis Petak — $113.77
omnibus-076daa
CTRDenis Petak — $110.89
ferdinand2
Matthew Forbes — $4.73