Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa, while the market favors Ian Pedersen Lozano (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa vs Ian Pedersen Lozano

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa (60%) · Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa37¢Ian Pedersen Lozano63¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.45

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 37¢

-48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Manzanera Pertusa at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Ian Pedersen Lozano 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa37%

Ian Pedersen Lozano63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa3 traders

Total Value$146.57

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$10.8

Ian Pedersen Lozano2 traders

Total Value$71.45

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$18.25

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa — 60%Ian Pedersen Lozano — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 35.6¢	$992.12	$570.71	-$203.33	48% 733-802 (1535)
└ Ian Pedersen Lozano leg	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 35.6¢	$444.02	$293.18	-$173.68
└ Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa leg	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusaavg 80.1¢	$290.51	$277.53	-$29.66
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 33¢	$345.7	$353.64	+$7.94	52% 5311-4816 (10127)
└ Ian Pedersen Lozano leg	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 33¢	$198.91	$222.48	+$23.58
└ Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa leg	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusaavg 70.6¢	$146.79	$131.15	-$15.64
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusaavg 70.7¢	$119.99	$129.34	+$9.35	10% 39-369 (408)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 30.8¢	$70.94	$66.58	-$4.36	22% 81-290 (371)
dips.CTR<$100	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusaavg 85¢	$8.58	$9.39	+$0.81	42% 189-263 (452)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusaavg 65.4¢	$7.19	$7.84	+$0.64	50% 128-129 (257)
US User7429<$100	Ian Pedersen Lozanoavg 25.6¢	$47.43	$4.87	-$13.89	15% 57-311 (368)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ian Pedersen Lozano

Invested

$992.12

Value

$570.71

PnL

-$203.33

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

Both legs:

Ian Pedersen Lozano$444.0235.6¢-$173.68

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa$290.5180.1¢-$29.66

cigarettesARB<$100

Ian Pedersen Lozano

Invested

$345.7

Value

$353.64

PnL

+$7.94

Record

52%

5311-4816 (10127)

Both legs:

Ian Pedersen Lozano$198.9133¢+$23.58

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa$146.7970.6¢-$15.64

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Invested

$119.99

Value

$129.34

PnL

+$9.35

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Ian Pedersen Lozano

Invested

$70.94

Value

$66.58

PnL

-$4.36

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

dips.CTR<$100

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Invested

$8.58

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.81

Record

42%

189-263 (452)

lryyyCTR<$100

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

User7429<$100

Ian Pedersen Lozano

Invested

$47.43

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$13.89

Record

15%

57-311 (368)

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Manzanera Pertusa at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Ian Pedersen Lozano 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.