Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bor Artnak, while the market favors Raphael Perot (78%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Columbus, OH: Raphael Perot vs Bor Artnak

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bor Artnak (43%) · Bor Artnak at 22¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Raphael Perot78¢Bor Artnak22¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bor Artnak

Consensus Traders

Bor Artnak 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$542.85

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 22¢

-51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBor Artnak at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bor Artnak

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Raphael Perot 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raphael Perot78%

Bor Artnak22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bor Artnak3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,135

Combined PnL-$527.7

Raphael Perot4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,484

Combined PnL-$15.16

Bor Artnak — 43%Raphael Perot — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bor Artnak. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBor Artnak 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBor Artnak 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bor Artnak 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI finzemCTR	Bor Artnakavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$24.72	— 4-2 (6)
OM omnibus-076daa	Raphael Perotavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$70.69	46% 499-596 (1095)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Bor Artnakavg 50¢	$1.1K	$997.5	-$52.5	51% 850-801 (1651)
└ Raphael Perot leg	Raphael Perotavg 50¢	$525	$535.5	+$10.5
└ Bor Artnak leg	Bor Artnakavg 50¢	$525	$462	-$63
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Bor Artnakavg 47.3¢	$1.0K	$480.08	-$551.32	46% 138-164 (302)
FL Flaznorp	Raphael Perotavg 54.6¢	$203.61	$279.46	+$75.85	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
dips.ARB<$100	Raphael Perotavg 53¢	$62.56	$64.43	+$1.88	47% 993-1122 (2115)
└ Raphael Perot leg	Raphael Perotavg 53¢	$34.84	$34.51	-$0.33
└ Bor Artnak leg	Bor Artnakavg 44¢	$27.72	$29.92	+$2.2
38 38791873984189	Raphael Perotavg 52.1¢	$256.34	$53.72	-$20.24	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raphael Perotavg 51.5¢	$7.55	$7.48	-$0.07	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Bor Artnakavg 58¢	$4.56	$3.46	-$1.1	48% 526-562 (1088)

finzemCTR

Bor Artnak

Invested

$2,175.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$24.72

Record

—

4-2 (6)

omnibus-076daa

Raphael Perot

Invested

$1,286.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$70.69

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

NotJumpARB<$100

Bor Artnak

Invested

$1,050

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

Both legs:

Raphael Perot$52550¢+$10.5

Bor Artnak$52550¢-$63

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Bor Artnak

Invested

$1,031.4

Value

$480.08

PnL

-$551.32

Record

46%

138-164 (302)

Flaznorp

Raphael Perot

Invested

$203.61

Value

$279.46

PnL

+$75.85

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

dips.ARB<$100

Raphael Perot

Invested

$62.56

Value

$64.43

PnL

+$1.88

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

Both legs:

Raphael Perot$34.8453¢-$0.33

Bor Artnak$27.7244¢+$2.2

38791873984189

Raphael Perot

Invested

$256.34

Value

$53.72

PnL

-$20.24

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Pan9X<$100

Raphael Perot

Invested

$7.55

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Bor Artnak

Invested

$4.56

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

526-562 (1088)

Research grade

AvoidBor Artnak at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bor Artnak

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Raphael Perot 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bor Artnak. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBor Artnak 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBor Artnak 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bor Artnak 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bor Artnak wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.