M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Luca Potenza

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Luca Potenza (50%) · Luca Potenza at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 18

Gabriele Pennaforti26¢Luca Potenza74¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luca Potenza

Consensus Traders

Luca Potenza 50%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$76.58

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 74¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuca Potenza at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Potenza

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Gabriele Pennaforti26%

Luca Potenza74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Potenza4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,462

Combined PnL-$95.93

Gabriele Pennaforti4 traders

Total Value$493.02

Total Shares1,939

Combined PnL+$19.34

Luca Potenza — 50%Gabriele Pennaforti — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Luca Potenzaavg 75¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$68.98	67% 161-81 (242)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Luca Potenzaavg 75.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$14.7	22% 116-414 (530)
CI cigarettesCTR	Gabriele Pennafortiavg 24.1¢	$252.69	$272.15	+$19.46	53% 5734-5129 (10863)
LR lryyyCTR	Gabriele Pennafortiavg 23.9¢	$188.39	$186.52	-$1.87	45% 233-284 (517)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Luca Potenzaavg 77.5¢	$174.28	$165.28	-$9	59% 16-11 (27)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Gabriele Pennafortiavg 30¢	$29.1	$29.1	-$0	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Luca Potenzaavg 80¢	$10	$6.75	-$3.25	49% 47-48 (95)
US User7429CTR<$100	Gabriele Pennafortiavg 20¢	$3.5	$5.25	+$1.75	24% 111-348 (459)

01258787xy48487484545122

Luca Potenza

Invested

$3,387.76

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$68.98

Record

67%

161-81 (242)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Luca Potenza

Invested

$1,296.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$14.7

Record

22%

116-414 (530)

cigarettesCTR

Gabriele Pennaforti

Invested

$252.69

Value

$272.15

PnL

+$19.46

Record

53%

5734-5129 (10863)

lryyyCTR

Gabriele Pennaforti

Invested

$188.39

Value

$186.52

PnL

-$1.87

Record

45%

233-284 (517)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Luca Potenza

Invested

$174.28

Value

$165.28

PnL

-$9

Record

59%

16-11 (27)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Gabriele Pennaforti

Invested

$29.1

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

glennyorkshire<$100

Luca Potenza

Invested

$10

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

49%

47-48 (95)

User7429CTR<$100

Gabriele Pennaforti

Invested

$3.5

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

24%

111-348 (459)

Research grade

NeutralLuca Potenza at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Potenza

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luca Potenza wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.