Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Marianna Argyrokastriti, while the market favors Giorgia Pedone (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Heraklion: Giorgia Pedone vs Marianna Argyrokastriti
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Marianna Argyrokastriti (60%) · Marianna Argyrokastriti at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Marianna Argyrokastriti
5
Marianna Argyrokastriti 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$100.37
50¢ → 36.5¢
-27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMarianna Argyrokastriti at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Giorgia Pedone 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Giorgia Pedoneavg 49.8¢ | $683.21 | $680.49 | -$2.72 | 57% 4020-3036 (7056) |
| └ Giorgia Pedone leg | Giorgia Pedoneavg 49.8¢ | $540.38 | $537.57 | -$2.81 | |
| └ Marianna Argyrokastriti leg | Marianna Argyrokastritiavg 50.5¢ | $142.83 | $142.92 | +$0.08 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Marianna Argyrokastritiavg 49.6¢ | $428.4 | $358.56 | -$69.84 | 53% 1783-1584 (3367) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Marianna Argyrokastritiavg 51.1¢ | $146.77 | $119.1 | -$27.66 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Giorgia Pedoneavg 54¢ | $24.84 | $21.57 | -$3.27 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Giorgia Pedoneavg 52.5¢ | $11.55 | $16.17 | +$4.62 | 23% 109-368 (477) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Marianna Argyrokastritiavg 52.8¢ | $8.45 | $4.24 | -$4.21 | 49% 91-96 (187) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$683.21
Value
$680.49
PnL
-$2.72
Record
57%
4020-3036 (7056)
Both legs:
Invested
$428.4
Value
$358.56
PnL
-$69.84
Record
53%
1783-1584 (3367)
Invested
$146.77
Value
$119.1
PnL
-$27.66
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$24.84
Value
$21.57
PnL
-$3.27
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$16.17
PnL
+$4.62
Record
23%
109-368 (477)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$4.21
Record
49%
91-96 (187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.